Valneva Shares Under Pressure Ahead of Quarterly Results, Down 47% in 3 Months
The stock of the Nantes-based vaccine specialist continues its slide this Tuesday, May 5th. Valneva is down by 2.62% at €2.196 in mid-morning trading, while the CAC 40 index is up by 0.62% during the session. The stock is now trading below the lower boundary of its Bollinger Bands, two days before the release of its first-quarter results.
Valneva is set to publish its first-quarter 2026 results on Thursday, May 7th, followed by a second financial communication on May 13th. At the end of April, the biotech completed a private placement of €84 million, with €37 million received at closing and up to €47 million contingent on the exercise of subscription warrants. This operation weighed on the stock price, which broke its support at €2.32 on Monday. Beyond the quarterly release, the schedule includes participation in the Bernstein European Small & Mid-Cap Conference on May 21st, and the annual general meeting on June 1st. Fundamentally, during the first nine months of 2025, the company had targeted a 2025 revenue between €155 and €170 million, dependent on the delivery schedule of the chikungunya vaccine active substance to low and middle-income countries. The company also cited the suspension of the IXCHIQ license in the United States by the FDA as a risk, impacting the travelers' segment.
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At €2.196, Valneva is trading below the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands set at €2.22, a configuration that indicates an acceleration of selling pressure beyond the usual standard deviation. The RSI has fallen to 27, in a pronounced oversold territory. The price is also well below the 50-day moving average (€3.52) and the 200-day moving average (€3.88), confirming a medium-term bearish trend. Over three months, the stock has lost 47.36%. The break of the support at €2.32 has pushed the price towards the residual threshold of €2.26, opening a technical space without recent graphical reference.
Au troisième trimestre, nous avons continué à nous concentrer sur le renforcement de notre trésorerie, ce qui nous a permis de refinancer notre dette à des conditions financières plus avantageuses.
Chiffre d’affaires de 127,0 millions d’euros sur neuf mois (+8,9 %), ventes de 119,4 millions d’euros, trésorerie de 143,5 millions d’euros au 30/09/2025, perte nette 65,2 millions d’euros, EBITDA ajusté (37,7) millions d’euros. Guidance 2025 confirmée : chiffre d’affaires attendu entre 165 et 180 millions d’euros; ventes attendues entre 155 et 170 millions d'euros. Renforcement de la position financière via refinancement et ATMs; Phase 3 VALOR pour le vaccin Lyme en cours selon calendrier.
Risks mentioned
Suspension de la licence IXCHIQ ® aux États-Unis par la FDA (impact sur ventes segment voyageurs)
Risque de résultats cliniques défavorables pour les candidats (phase 3 VALOR pour Lyme, essais S4V2, VLA1601 incertitudes réglementaires)
Exposition aux fluctuations de change (impact négatif mentionné de 1,3 millions d’euros sur ventes, effets de change volontaires)
Dépendance à des partenaires de distribution et diminution des produits de tiers (arrêt de distribution de Rabipur/RabAvert et Encepur)
Opportunities identified
Résultats positifs potentiels de la Phase 3 VALOR (VLA15) pouvant mener à des demandes d'autorisation en 2026
Accord commercial avec CSL Seqirus en Allemagne pour stimuler la commercialisation des vaccins
Croissance des ventes d'IXCHIQ ® sur les marchés hors États-Unis et dans les PRFI (livraisons de substance active)
Potentiel du candidat S4V2 contre la shigellose (marché estimé > 500 millions de dollars/an)
Données positives de Phase 1 pour VLA1601 (Zika) et forte persistance d'anticorps pour IXCHIQ ® (95 % à 4 ans) comme avantage concurrentiel
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