Valneva Stock Drops 6.14% and Breaks Its Support Following a €84M Dilution

Support Gives Way Under Selling Pressure

Valneva loses 6.14% during the session and falls to €2.17, a low marked by the downward crossing of the support at €2.32. The stock also falls below the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands set at €2.34, a configuration of overselling that extends the bearish sequence started several weeks ago. An RSI at 25 confirms the exhaustion of buying flow. Over three months, the stock has declined by 44.42%. The 50-day moving average at €3.73 and the 200-day moving average at €3.89 remain well above the current price, reflecting a medium and long-term bearish trend. Today's movement follows the completion of a private capital raise last week, an operation that raised €37 million at closing, supplemented by up to €47 million conditioned on the exercise of subscription warrants. This potential dilution weighs on the valuation.

Quarterly Earnings Expected Thursday

The financial calendar schedules the publication of the first quarter 2026 results on Thursday, May 7, followed by a second meeting on May 13. Valneva has confirmed in its previous releases an expected revenue range for 2025 between €165 and €180 million, with product sales ranging from €155 to €170 million depending on the delivery schedule of the chikungunya vaccine active substance to low and middle-income countries. The group also anticipates R&D expenses between €80 and €90 million. Among the points mentioned during the communication on the first nine months of 2025 are the suspension of the IXCHIQ license in the United States by the FDA, which affects the travelers' segment, and the anticipation of the results from the phase 3 VALOR trial on the Lyme disease vaccine candidate. A downgrade by Goldman Sachs to 'sell' in mid-April had already increased the pressure on the stock. The May 7 publication will be the next concrete checkpoint for the stock.