Valneva Stock Rises 2.83% at Midday This Monday, December 29

On this Monday, December 29, at midday, Valneva's stock is up by 2.83% at 3.71 euros, after opening at 3.59 euros compared to a previous close of 3.61 euros. Trading volumes remain limited with only 0.27% of the capital traded during the session, indicating reduced activity typical of the period between Christmas and New Year. Over the week, the stock has shown a 4.1% increase, signaling the beginning of stabilization after a consolidation phase that started in early December. However, the past quarter has been marked by a decline of 12.17%, reflecting the persistent volatility characteristic of the biotechnological sector and regulatory uncertainties around the IXCHIQ vaccine against chikungunya. Over one year, the performance remains spectacular with a surge of 73.04%, primarily driven by advancements in the VLA15 program against Lyme disease developed in partnership with Pfizer. From a technical perspective, the price is currently slightly below its 50-day moving average established at 3.87 euros, but remains firmly above the 200-day moving average positioned at 3.47 euros, confirming an underlying bullish trend. The RSI is at 40, a level close to the oversold zone suggesting a potential for a technical rebound that could explain the movement observed this Monday. The technical support identified at 3.49 euros has been tested several times in recent days and appears to hold, indicating persistent investor interest at these levels.

Interest in Valneva is focused on VLA15, the only vaccine candidate against Lyme disease in advanced Phase 3 clinical development, with results expected in the first half of 2026. Participants in the VALOR trial will be followed until the end of 2025 to measure the incidence of the disease, paving the way for decisive results in the coming weeks. Pfizer plans to submit a request for authorization to the US FDA and the European Medicines Agency in 2026, subject to positive Phase 3 data. This timeline partly explains the recent nervousness of the stock and the renewed interest observed, as investors anticipate a major catalyst that could unlock significant valuation. Lyme disease affects approximately 476,000 people annually in the United States and 130,000 in Europe, representing a potential market worth several hundred million euros. On November 26, Valneva announced positive final Phase 2 results confirming the benefits of annual vaccination before each Lyme season, which propelled the stock up by 7.60% during the session. The consensus among analysts remains constructive with an average target of 6.35 euros according to available data, representing a potential upside of 71% from the current price of 3.71 euros. However, Goldman Sachs maintains a neutral recommendation with a target lowered to 3.25 euros on November 28, reflecting short-term caution after the strong performance recorded since early 2025.

The Franco-Austrian laboratory reported revenue of 127 million euros for the first nine months of 2025, up 8.9% compared to the same period of the previous year. This growth comes in a context marked by the suspension in November by the US FDA of the license for IXCHIQ, its vaccine against chikungunya intended for travelers. This decision led the company to revise its annual sales targets downward, now expected between 155 and 170 million euros compared to an initial range of 170 to 180 million euros. The adjusted EBITDA remains negative at -37.7 million euros over nine months, reflecting sustained investments in research and development estimated between 80 and 90 million euros for the full year. To enhance its operational efficiency, Valneva announced at the end of November the closure of its historic site in Nantes-Saint-Herblain and the transfer of all its French activities to Lyon, where the new headquarters will be established, while R&D will be centralized in Vienna, Austria. From a technical perspective, the MACD indicator displays a line at -0.06 and a signal line at -0.05, with a negative histogram at -0.01, indicating a still fragile but gradually improving dynamic. The one-month volatility is set at 12.53%, characteristic of biotechnological stocks awaiting major catalysts. The major resistance is at 4.30 euros, a level reached at the end of November and which will constitute a key technical threshold to validate a sustainable recovery of the bullish momentum.