Vivendi Shares Plunge 13% at Midday Following Revelations on Potential Compensation for Minority Shareholders

Impact of Legal Developments on Stock Performance

The stock's tumble follows revelations from an article in Le Monde indicating that the Court of Cassation, set to rule on November 28, is expected to validate Vivendi's split into four entities, which was contested last April by the Paris Court of Appeal. This outcome would mean that Vincent Bolloré, the main shareholder, would not have to pay anything, although an amount estimated between 6 and 9 billion euros was at stake to compensate the minority shareholders. Trading volume remains moderate with 0.52% of the capital traded, while the CAC 40 slightly declines by 0.11% to 7,958.96 points. Over a week, the decline now reaches 16.51%, extending a downward trend affecting the stock for three months with a negative performance of 20.55%. Over a year, Vivendi still shows a rise of 26.6%, significantly outperforming the CAC 40 index, which has increased by 9.35% over the same period. This contrast is explained by the revaluation of the stock before the effective split on December 13, 2024. Since that date, Vivendi SE has deconsolidated Canal+, Havas, and Louis Hachette Group, transforming the group into a holding company primarily holding stakes in Universal Music Group, MediaForEurope, Banijay, and the game publisher Gameloft. The group's market capitalization is now around 2.6 billion euros, far from the initial valuations expected during the split operation.

Technical Analysis Highlights Current Vulnerability

Technical analysis confirms the current fragility of the stock. The RSI is at 34, entering an oversold zone and signaling intense selling pressure in the short term. However, this indicator suggests that a technical rebound could occur if the trend exhausts itself. The price is significantly below its 50-day moving average set at 3.02 euros, marking a significant technical break. The stock also crosses its support threshold identified at 2.89 euros, corresponding to the previous day's closing price, which paves the way for a continuation of the correction towards the next support. The one-month volatility stands at 6.43, reflecting marked nervousness among investors. The MACD, with its main line at -0.03 and its signal line at -0.02, confirms the ongoing bearish momentum. The negative histogram at -0.02 indicates that the bearish dynamic has intensified over several sessions. The Bollinger Bands, ranging between 2.87 euros and 3.19 euros, show that the stock is currently testing the lower bound, reinforcing the hypothesis of a very short-term technical oversell situation. The Stochastic indicator also indicates a sell configuration, consistent with the observed movement.

Legal Stakes Heavily Impact Group Valuation

The legal stakes weigh heavily on the group's valuation. The litigation between activist fund CIAM and Vivendi regarding the regularity of the split could reach its conclusion on November 28. If the Court of Cassation definitively validates the operation, as suggested by Le Monde, this would confirm the Bolloré group's strategy without additional financial constraints. However, this favorable legal outcome does not reassure investors about the value creation promised at the announcement of the split. Since last December, the sum of the valuations of the four entities resulting from the conglomerate's breakup remains below the initial capitalization of Vivendi before the operation, contradicting the initial expectations of a reduction in the holding discount. The upcoming sessions will be decisive in assessing whether the market anticipates other developments or if a stabilization movement can begin around the current levels.