A Surprisingly Resilient Global Economy
The predicted recession will not occur. This is the conclusion drawn by Emmanuel Auboyneau, managing partner at Amplegest, in his latest economic report: the global economy continues to progress, driven by strong consumer spending, better-managed inflation, and a surprising ability to adapt to political and geopolitical shocks.
"We are surprised by the resilience of economies to absorb so many constraints without a real slowdown," he notes.
While the trade tensions imposed by Donald Trump and European budgetary uncertainties make it difficult to gauge the outlook, the fundamentals remain solid. Growth is on a positive trajectory in both the United States and Asia, while Europe, still mired in challenges, is showing some signs of recovery.
The United States stays on course, Asia accelerates
In the United States, macroeconomic indicators are sending mixed yet generally reassuring signals. The US GDP increased by 3.8% in the second quarter, a strong pace despite a federal shutdown delaying the release of numerous statistics. Consumption remains stronger than expected, supported by rising purchasing power and inflation moderation around 3%, a surprisingly stable level despite tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. According to Amplegest, part of their impact seems to be absorbed by corporate margins.
The labor market is beginning to show some signs of fatigue: job creation in the private sector is slowing, the resignation rate is declining, and the average workweek is slightly decreasing. These leading indicators suggest a possible trend reversal, although the unemployment rate remains historically low. The Federal Reserve is anticipating two additional rate cuts by the end of 2025 to support this slowdown, followed by a more cautious status quo in 2026.
In Asia, the dynamics remain clearly positive. China is stabilizing its growth around 4.5% to 5% despite the contraction of the real estate sector, and Japan is finally emerging from its chronic deflation. As for India, it remains a central driver of global growth, fueled by domestic consumption and infrastructure development.
Europe Set Back but on the Road to Recovery
The old continent remains lagging, but some developments are worth highlighting. While France is still mired in political uncertainty—between the potential for a government dissolution and budgetary gridlock—economic activity is not further deteriorating. Consumer spending is holding up, business failures are stabilizing, and employment pressures remain manageable.
The most notable improvements are seen in Germany. After two years of industrial contraction, Berlin is adopting a more assertive fiscal policy focused on military resurgence and infrastructure development. The effects of these programs are expected to start materializing in 2026, giving the eurozone a boost.
Spain and, to a lesser extent, Italy are confirming their roles as growth drivers, thanks to sustained domestic demand.
In the stock market, third-quarter earnings releases are reassuring investors. In both the US and Europe, performance quality remains strong, particularly driven by the artificial intelligence revolution, which continues to be a source of optimism for equity markets.
A "Goldilocks" Scenario to Monitor Closely
According to Amplegest, the current situation resembles a « Goldilocks scenario": not too hot, not too cold. Growth remains robust, prices are under control, and monetary policy is normalizing smoothly. Markets are highly valued, admits Emmanuel Auboyneau, but there is no apparent bubble in an environment of strong earnings and declining rates.
The management teams at Amplegest have slightly increased risk in their balanced portfolios while remaining predominantly invested in equities within their dynamic mandates.
Their belief is that a controlled slowdown, still comfortable margins, and a gradual decline in rates create a favorable environment for the performance of risk assets.
One area to watch is U.S. policy and European electoral uncertainties, which could introduce increased volatility in the first half of 2026.
However, as of now, the conclusion is clear: the global economy is holding up—and better than expected.
This content has been automatically translated using artificial intelligence. While we strive for accuracy, some nuances may differ from the original French version.
