Oil: Brent Crude Above $100 as Washington Partially Lifts Sanctions on Russian Oil

Brent Crude Surpasses $100: A Timeline of the Surge

On Friday, March 13, 2026, at 11:30 AM, Brent crude oil was priced at over $101 a barrel, before slightly dipping back toward the $100 mark. This surge is a direct result of the disruption of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which approximately one-fifth of the world's oil consumption flows.

Crossing above the $100 threshold represents a major psychological milestone for the markets. It hasn't been reached in several years and signals elevated stress levels for traders concerning the physical supply of crude oil. Global stock exchanges were in the red on the same day, while interest rates remained under pressure, reflecting fears of an energy-related inflation shock.

US License Granted on March 12: Unprecedented Easing of Sanctions Against Moscow

On March 12, the United States authorized the sale of Russian crude oil and petroleum products loaded onto ships before this date, with this measure effective until April 11. Essentially, this allows Russian cargoes already at sea, which were blocked by the sanctions regime established after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, to be sold on the global market.

Washington presented this license as a strictly temporary response to the Ormuz blockade, without undermining the overall sanctions framework. Nevertheless, it marks a significant precedent: for the first time since the restrictions were implemented, the United States is explicitly facilitating the release of Russian barrels onto the market to address a supply deficit.

The Strait of Hormuz: Why Its Blockage Disrupts the Global Oil Market

The Strait of Hormuz, located between Iran and the Sultanate of Oman, is the world's most strategic maritime passage for oil trade. According to data from the International Energy Agency, approximately 20 to 21 million barrels per day normally pass through it, representing nearly 20% of global demand. Its navigable width is just a few kilometers, making it extremely vulnerable to any military or political disruptions.

On the fourteenth day of the Middle East conflict, the effective blockade of the Strait has deprived markets of a significant volume of crude oil from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. Alternative routes—land pipelines to the Red Sea or the Mediterranean—do not have sufficient capacity to fully compensate for this disruption.

This bottleneck is not a new phenomenon. In the past, tensions in the Gulf have repeatedly led to spikes in oil market volatility. However, the crisis of March 2026 serves as a reminder that the world's energy system remains structurally dependent on this maritime passage, despite decades of discussions on diversifying supply routes.

Financial Markets and Interest Rates: The Immediate Impact of the Oil Shock

The surge in crude oil prices beyond $100 has sent shockwaves across all asset classes. On March 13, 2026, major European and Asian stock indices were showing declines.

In the bond market, interest rates remained under pressure. Persistently high oil prices are fueling inflation expectations, complicating efforts by central banks engaged in a cycle of monetary easing. Investors are factoring in the risk of postponing, or even reversing, the anticipated cuts in key interest rates.

The authorization to sell Russian crude, while it may help inject additional volumes into the physical market, is limited in both time and quantity. Its impact on prices depends on the duration of the Hormuz blockade and the actual availability of shipments. This scenario highlights how quickly a localized geopolitical shock can ripple through the entire global financial system, from gas pump prices to sovereign yields.