Oil: Brent Soars 4% to $79 Following US-Iran Strikes in Hormuz

Hormuz: The Barrel Gains a Geopolitical Risk Premium

Brent crude prices were up about 2% at $77.75 a barrel around 11 a.m. this Monday. This movement erases the recent decline linked to the interim agreement reached at the end of June and brings the issue of transit through the Strait of Hormuz back to the forefront of market concerns.

Before the war, about 20% of the world's traded oil and LNG passed through this maritime corridor, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Despite a rebound of 4.1 million barrels per day in June, global supply would remain 9.4 mbd below pre-conflict levels, still according to the IEA. The United Nations warns against « catastrophic » consequences in the event of a return to large-scale hostilities, while the relatively contained price reaction reflects, according to analysts cited by the Associated Press, a market bet on a still limited escalation in the short term.

This sequence extends the trajectory described in our article Oil: Brent Soars Again and Breaks 80$, Risk of Energy Shock Resurfaces, with price levels that remain, by nature, very volatile throughout the session.

Imported Inflation: The Japanese Signal and the Thai Case

The rise in oil prices directly influences production costs in net energy-importing economies. In Japan, the producer price index shows a +7.1% increase year-on-year in June, exceeding the consensus of +6.8%, according to Bank of Japan data. This marks the highest rise since March 2023, driven by energy and raw materials amidst a weak yen.

The picture is more nuanced elsewhere in Asia. In Thailand, overall inflation stands at 2.42% year-on-year in June, within the target range of 1% to 3%, as reported by the Bank of Thailand and relayed by Reuters. The institution anticipates annual inflation below 2.8% in 2026, allowing room to maintain an accommodative policy.

These releases remain initial estimates, subject to future revisions by statistical institutes. Nevertheless, they illustrate the heterogeneity of inflation trajectories, a parameter already highlighted by the IMF in its summer update of the World Economic Outlook, which described a stalled disinflation due to the energy shock.

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