Oil: Brent Soars Again, Surpasses $80, Raising Risk of Energy Shock

Oil Barrel Prices Surge Following Ceasefire Collapse

Brent crude jumped about 5.2% to $78.02 per barrel, with an intraday high above $80, while WTI surpassed the $75 mark, rising more than 6% during the session. The trigger: Donald Trump's announcement from Ankara declaring the end of the ceasefire with Iran, amid U.S. strikes on Iranian targets and a retaliatory claim by Tehran targeting neighboring Gulf countries.

Additionally, Washington revoked waivers that still allowed Iran to export a portion of its oil, in response to repeated attacks on merchant ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. Tanker traffic in the strait has significantly shrunk, whereas this route used to account for about 20% of global crude and LNG flows before the conflict.

This situation is a direct extension of the initial market reaction to the ceasefire challenge, with geopolitical risk premium partly erasing the easing observed in previous weeks.

Fed and Long-Term Rates: The Energy Constraint Tightens

The rise in crude oil prices is already affecting nominal interest rates: 10-year Treasury yields momentarily approached 4.6%, as investors brace for the risk of a resurgence in inflation through the energy channel. This dynamic supports the idea of a prolonged pause by the Fed until the impact of the oil shock on consumer prices is clarified.

However, the assessment remains dependent on upcoming macroeconomic releases: the minutes reflect the situation as it was known in mid-June, and new data on inflation or employment could quickly alter the FOMC's decision-making.

Global Growth: IMF Describes a "Stable but Unequal" Environment

In its updated World Economic Outlook published on July 8, the IMF projects global growth of 3.0% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. The institution describes a trajectory as « stable but uneven, » where the support from the rise of artificial intelligence in some countries partly offsets the shock of the war in the Middle East on energy importers.

For investors, the reading is twofold: on one hand, oil and oil service companies benefit mechanically from a re-evaluated barrel; on the other hand, sectors with high energy intensity (airlines exposed to jet fuel, chemicals, road transport) see their cost structure deteriorate as the geopolitical risk premium takes hold. The impact on margins will depend on the actual duration of tensions in the Gulf.

These projections remain subject to large margins of error. The IMF itself highlights that the evolution of the war in the Middle East, the trajectory of energy prices, and confidence in the investment cycle surrounding AI are all factors that could significantly influence the central scenario.