Artificial Intelligence: The New Quiet Driver of American Growth

From Investment Theme to Macroeconomic Lever

AI was initially analyzed as a performance driver concentrated on a small number of tech stocks, helping to limit the volatility of the S&P 500. Today, this view seems incomplete. In the first half of 2025, AI-related investments contributed roughly one percentage point to the annual growth of the US GDP, which stood at 2.1%.

This figure is all the more significant given that, during the same period, private investments outside the tech sector weighed on economic activity. In other words, without the massive investment in AI, US growth momentum would have been noticeably weaker. Despite still demanding financing conditions, companies continue their spending, convinced that AI now serves as a key lever for long-term productivity and competitiveness.

An Imperfectly Measured Impact

The direct contribution of the technology sector to GDP may seem diminished by imports of semiconductors and computer equipment, mostly produced in Taiwan and China. However, this accounting perspective conceals deeper economic effects. AI generates cross-sector productivity gains, supports the profitability of user companies, and fosters the creation of skilled jobs.

In the medium term, the magnitude of the amounts involved highlights the phenomenon: AI-related investments could reach nearly $1.3 trillion in the coming years. Combined with gradual monetary easing, persistent fiscal support, and a reduction in trade uncertainties, this dynamic could promote a broader recovery in equity markets by 2026, extending beyond the narrow circle of leading technology companies.