CAC 40: A Stagnant Market, Yet Far from Inactive
Stuck for several weeks in a corridor between 8,000 and 8,200 points, the CAC 40 presents the image of a market without direction. A deceptive stability that reflects less of an absence of stakes and more of a fragile balance between contradictory macroeconomic forces.
China, the Main External Constraint
For a significant portion of large French cap companies, the Chinese economic situation remains crucial. However, the latest indicators confirm a persistent slowdown. In November, annual retail sales growth fell to 1.3%, down from 6% in the spring. Fixed asset investments are contracting for the third consecutive month, marking their worst streak since the health crisis. Industrial production is growing more slowly than expected, while bank credit growth remains disappointing, particularly hampered by a drop in household borrowing.
These data suggest that the support measures implemented by Beijing are insufficient, at this stage, to sustainably revive domestic demand. For the CAC 40, this means that the Asian market is not fully playing its role as an economic driver, limiting any upward acceleration.
Western Stability Lacking a Catalyst
Domestically, French budget debates have not caused specific tensions in the markets. The rise in the ten-year borrowing rate aligns with a broader trend in the eurozone, while the spread with Germany has slightly eased to around 70 basis points, its lowest level since the end of summer.
In the United States, caution is also prevalent. Despite a Federal Reserve rate cut, the message remains restrictive, with only one additional cut projected for 2026. Unemployment has risen to 4.6%, wage growth is slowing, and inflation remains close to 3%. This environment supports a moderate increase in volatility on Wall Street, which mechanically hampers upward momentum for the CAC 40. In the absence of a clear catalyst, the Paris market is expected to remain in a consolidation phase.
This content has been automatically translated using artificial intelligence. While we strive for accuracy, some nuances may differ from the original French version.
