Outlook 2026: Investing in a World of Shifting Balances
According to BlackRock's 2026 outlook, six key questions will shape allocations: the resilience of the global economy, the direction of central banks, interest rate dispersion, the role of the dollar, US valuation levels, and the enduring winners of AI.
A Resilient Yet Fractured Global Cycle
The global economy is entering the year in a more robust position than expected. US growth is anticipated to take the lead in 2026, driven by a gradual easing from the Federal Reserve and new fiscal measures that will begin to take effect. According to BlackRock, this momentum is expected to support employment, investment, and consumption, establishing a foundation of autonomous growth that Europe cannot match but can accompany.
In Europe, the recovery will be more moderate, hampered by budgetary constraints and divergences among member states. Germany appears to be rebounding but remains burdened by its energy transition and industrial slowdown. Southern Europe, on the other hand, is expected to benefit from a more favorable cycle, boosted by domestic demand and the normalization of tourism. As for China, its role in the global equation will be less uniform than in the past: real estate tensions, deflationary pressures, and cautious consumer behavior create a less predictable environment.
In this fragmented landscape, one message is clear: global growth can hold, but it will rely more on domestic factors than on a synchronized global engine.
Interest rates are telling a different story now
For the first time in over a decade, major central banks are no longer moving in sync. The Fed may return to a floor rate close to 2.5% by 2027, while maintaining a pragmatic, data-driven approach. The ECB is leaning towards moderate easing, without the intention of repeating past aggressive cycles. The Bank of England, and particularly the Bank of Japan, facing governmental changes and internal pressures, are adopting a firmer stance.
This divergence creates opportunities but requires more selectivity. Short-term US government bonds are expected to benefit from rate cuts, as will high-quality credit. Longer maturities remain exposed to fiscal uncertainties. In Europe, the uneven slowdown encourages granular selection, while emerging markets benefit from domestic rate cuts and strong currencies.
On the equities front, US valuations remain high but are consistent with an environment of increased profitability. The rise of AI, improvements in productivity, and higher profit margins support historically high multiples. Notably, growth is expanding beyond tech giants: earnings revisions are advancing across all sectors.
AI is indeed changing the very nature of competitive advantages. It reduces informational scarcity and shifts power areas toward physical assets, regulated positions, network effects, or critical infrastructure. Tomorrow's winners won't necessarily be the visible innovators, but those whose models structurally absorb productivity gains.
A Multidimensional Allocation
In this complex landscape, the concept of « multidimensional allocation » is taking shape: geographically diversifying, diversifying economic drivers, and diversifying AI exposures are becoming essential for sustainable performance. BlackRock emphasizes a crucial point: despite fiscal, geopolitical, and monetary risks, markets are entering 2026 in a more favorable environment than at the start of the cycle. The challenge is no longer about survival, but about choosing where to position oneself.
This content has been automatically translated using artificial intelligence. While we strive for accuracy, some nuances may differ from the original French version.
