Real Estate: A Market That's Still Holding On… But Clearly Losing Steam
The LPI-iad barometer for November 2025 confirms a paradox now well-embedded in the French real estate landscape: prices continue to rise despite waning demand, persistently constrained credit, and widening negotiation margins in many regions. The market is holding, but under pressure. Behind its apparent resilience, signs of transition are accumulating.
Prices Rise Despite Weak Demand
Consolidated data for November reveals a persistent reality: despite the slowdown in demand, prices remain firm. The average price in the existing homes market has reached €3,368 per square meter, up 0.8% over three months and 1.9% over a year. Apartments have increased by 2.1%, and houses by 1.7%. In an environment of still high interest rates and constrained purchasing power, this price resilience highlights a trend observed again in 2024: a shortage of supply remains the dominant force in the market.
In the new homes sector, the situation is more varied. New houses show a notable increase (up 2.2% over a year), while new apartments are stagnant (up 0.1%). The new homes market continues to suffer from the slowdown in housing starts, pressure on construction costs, and regulatory uncertainties, further diminishing visibility for both developers and buyers.
Supply pressure is evident in major metro areas. Over fifteen years, in many cities—Grenoble, Limoges, Perpignan, Saint-Étienne, Besançon, Dijon, Marseille, Orléans—price increases have remained below inflation (up 1.8% per year). Only a few urban areas (Angers, Annecy, Brest, Metz, Rennes, Strasbourg) show increases outpacing income growth, confirming the fragmented market where local trajectories diverge.
Current price levels speak volumes about regional imbalances: €10,421 per square meter in Paris, €4,737 in Lyon, €4,550 in Bordeaux, €3,784 in Lille, €3,730 in Toulouse, and €3,574 in Marseille. The capital remains a unique market, but the gaps are narrowing with some dynamic metro areas, especially for exceptional properties.
Another significant shift is the reduction of the discount between central and peripheral areas. Buyers seeking more space and quality of life are increasingly turning to suburban areas, especially in metro areas where central markets remain saturated or too expensive. In cities like Grenoble, Montpellier, Nice, Rouen, Toulouse, and Paris, apartment prices are rising more than 3% per year. Conversely, Lille, Nantes, Rennes, and Strasbourg are seeing slower growth, while Lyon and Nancy are stagnating. For houses, price increases are more widespread: Brest, Grenoble, Nancy, and Rennes are driving the market upward.
Expanding Margins
While prices remain stable, the behavior of sellers and buyers reflects a form of underlying tension. The average negotiation margin is 9.7%, but there are significant regional disparities. The more relaxed regions (Burgundy, Champagne-Ardenne, Franche-Comté, Haute-Normandie, Limousin, Picardy) show margins exceeding 12%, indicating weakened demand and sellers facing a harsher reality compared to metropolitan areas.
Conversely, the most expensive and tense areas—Île-de-France, Aquitaine, Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, Rhône-Alpes—maintain tight margins (7 to 9%), confirming that buyers there have less leverage. However, the rising personal contribution requirements, a direct consequence of the banks' policies, weigh on the most fragile markets.
In terms of activity, the situation is becoming more complicated. After an exceptional spring rebound (+31% in July), sales are significantly slowing down. Over three months, the increase remains positive (+8.7%), but the pace is weakening. The contrast between Île-de-France (+15.6%) and other regions (+5.7%) is growing.
Some regions are even experiencing a notable decline in sales: Alsace, Midi-Pyrénées, Rhône-Alpes. Others are stagnating: Auvergne, Centre, Haute-Normandie, Pays de la Loire, Nord-Pas-de-Calais. On the other hand, a few areas stand out for their dynamism: Aquitaine, Champagne-Ardenne, Franche-Comté exceed +25% in activity.
This overview depicts a market in transition, where the dynamics of prices barely conceal the weakening demand. The limited supply continues to support values, but access to credit, banking requirements, and household caution weigh on volumes. The market is expected to enter a phase of normalization, with a clearer polarization between attractive metropolitan areas, sought-after residential zones, and regions with structurally weak demand.
This content has been automatically translated using artificial intelligence. While we strive for accuracy, some nuances may differ from the original French version.
