Coface Raises Its Business Insolvency Forecast to +6% in 2026

Rapid Increase in Defaults at the Start of 2026

Corporate failures surged by 12% at the start of 2026, according to Coface. This increase is primarily driven by North America, where bankruptcies have risen by 22%, serving as the main driver of the global hike. This acceleration highlights the extent and speed of the deterioration in the economic environment for businesses, which are confronted with high costs, increasingly pressured margins, and uncertain demand that is tending to slow down.

Coface attributes this trend to recent geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East, whose effects are manifested concretely in rising supply costs, increased energy price volatility, and heightened uncertainty affecting business investment decisions.

Significant Increases in the United States, France, and Japan

Coface's forecasts for 2026 include significant increases in the United States (+8%), France (+8%), and Japan (+7%), while Germany and the Netherlands are expected to record rises of about 5%. More moderate growth, between 2% and 3%, is anticipated in Spain, Italy, and the United Kingdom.

Cyclical sectors remain particularly vulnerable. Construction, chemicals, and textiles are particularly fragile due to their exposure to production costs and demand. In the United States, industry and construction are impacted by rising financing costs and a slowdown in demand. In Germany, energy-intensive industries remain under pressure. In France, the food and transport sectors show signs of deterioration. In Japan, highly indebted sectors like construction are severely tested by tightening financing conditions.

High Interest Rates and Limited Public Support Measures

Despite the start of a monetary easing cycle, interest rates remain at high levels after several years of restrictive policy. This constraint heavily impacts companies entering this phase with very low cash reserves. Even slight changes in financing conditions can have a disproportionate impact: a new increase would be enough to accelerate defaults on a global scale.

Unlike previous crises, current public interventions will not provide the same safety net effect. In Europe, fiscal support in 2022-2023 amounted to about 2 to 4% of GDP, while current measures are significantly more limited. The largest observed program (in Spain) represents only 0.3% of GDP, and these interventions are more targeted, risking leaving the most vulnerable unprotected against the ongoing deterioration.