M&A 2025: The Resurgence of Megadeals and Transformational Strategies

A Rebound Focused on Transformative Operations

The contrast is striking: the number of transactions is only growing by 5%, but the total value is soaring to near-historical levels. The driver is clear: deals exceeding 5 billion dollars account for 75% of the increase. Notably, about 60% of these megadeals come from companies known as « infrequent acquirers, » meaning groups that rarely engage in M&A activities. According to Bain, this trend reflects both a renewed sense of confidence and increasing strategic pressure, particularly linked to technological disruptions. More than 40% of major transactions are considered « transformative, » representing over half of the acquirer's market capitalization—a high risk level that necessitates particularly rigorous strategic alignment.

Sector dynamics confirm the depth of the movement. Boosted by the rise of AI, the tech sector is registering a 76% increase, reaching 478 billion dollars. Nearly one out of two strategic deals over 500 million involves an « AI-native » company or focuses on integrating AI capabilities into the existing offering. Advanced manufacturing is also experiencing a solid cycle, up 38% to 717 billion dollars. Geographically, the United States accounts for nearly half of the total value, China remains active thanks to domestic operations (over 80% of the market), while Japan has doubled the value of its transactions, becoming the third-largest market globally. EMEA presents a paradox: strong growth in value but a decline in the number of deals (-7%), indicating a still selective and more cautious market.

Several factors explain the resurgence: regulatory easing in many jurisdictions, the normalization of capital costs, and the narrowing valuation gap between buyers and sellers. EV/EBITDA multiples have climbed to 11.6x—still below the 2021 peaks—facilitating mergers. An unprecedented element of pressure is added by the AI race. Bain reports that 85% of M&A executives have updated their pipelines to incorporate this new technological factor.

AI is Redefining M&A Practices

The most profound transformation might stem less from the deals themselves and more from how they are prepared. According to Bain, 75% of acquirers now assess the impact of artificial intelligence during their due diligence processes. Even more significant: 20% of transactions are abandoned due to AI-specific risks, including data integrity, algorithmic governance, or the sustainability of business models based on automation. Professionals in the sector are also evolving rapidly: 45% say they use AI in their daily tasks, from sourcing and synergy analysis to integration planning.

This shift comes with a major strategic realignment: 2025 marks the pivot toward « scope deals. » Around 60% of transactions over a billion dollars now aim to acquire new technological, commercial, or sector-specific capabilities rather than seeking economies of scale. Even sectors historically focused on size, such as financial services or traditional industries, are adjusting their models. Companies are less focused on consolidation and more on repositioning themselves in an environment where AI accelerates innovation cycles and heightens barriers to entry.

Budgetary and Geopolitical Challenges

However, this remarkable rebound faces a structural constraint: budget allocation for M&A activity is at its lowest in a decade. Companies in the S&P World Index are now dedicating only 7% of their cash expenditures to M&A, compared to 9% to 17% in the previous decade. These groups are now weighing M&A against investments in AI, technological infrastructure transformation, strengthening supply chains, and funding the energy transition. This internal competition naturally limits the number of deals, while increasing the profitability requirements for each transaction.

In the background, a more intrusive geopolitical environment is emerging. While trade and tariff tensions had only a limited impact in 2025, Bain anticipates more pronounced effects in the coming years, notably a reduced appetite among non-American buyers for US assets. This is a sign that could reshape the global M&A landscape.