Among the strongest gains in the CAC 40, Crédit Agricole stock rebounds by 2%
The green bank is recovering this morning after several difficult weeks. The movement is part of a Paris market oriented upwards, where the stock ranks in the top half of the CAC 40.
A 2% rebound that leaves the stock below its three moving averages
The Crédit Agricole stock gains 2.04% to €17.28, compared to €16.93 at the previous close, while the CAC 40 advances 0.59%. This recovery comes after a week at -3.68% and a month at -8.14%, so that today's gain merely mitigates the recent decline. The stock remains below its three moving averages: the 20-day MA is at €18.03 (deviation of 4.19%), the 50-day MA at €18.72, and the 200-day MA at €17.69, the latter now just 2.35% away from the price.
The RSI at 30 signals an oversold configuration, and the support level at €16.64, retested this morning, remains approximately 3.7% below the price. Meanwhile, the decline of previous sessions had caused the stock to fall below the €16.92 threshold last Friday.
An OAT at 4.90% and a spread with the Bund at 1.47 points, highest since January 2012
The interest rate environment remains challenging for the bank. According to the Banque de France, the 10-year OAT was at 4.90% on October 2, at the level of the series peak recorded on October 1, while the Bund stood at 3.43% according to the Bundesbank. The spread of 1.47 points between the two is the highest since January 2012, and it has widened by 66 basis points over one month for the OAT. Crédit Agricole has historically moved in the opposite direction to this sovereign spread: the bank carries government debt on its balance sheet, and a widening spread puts a price on political risk.
Today's session thus shows a rebound in an environment that has not changed. In terms of valuation, the consensus of analysts surveyed places the stock at approximately 7.5 times the earnings of the current fiscal year, with expected earnings per share growth of 8.2% from one year to the next. The level to watch remains the 200-day MA at €17.69, just above the current price.
