ArcelorMittal Shares Drop Nearly 2% and Fall Below a Technical Threshold
In the mid-afternoon, the Luxembourg-based steelmaker consolidates, despite an overall upward trend in the CAC 40. Following a spectacular year-long rally, the stock is now at the lower end of the Parisian index and has fallen below a short-term technical threshold. This decline occurs as Chinese statistics send mixed signals about global industrial demand.
The Stock Drops Below its 20-Day Moving Average and Slides to the Lower End of the CAC 40
ArcelorMittal has dropped 1.96% to €58.06, down from a previous close of €59.22. This movement stands out in a CAC 40 that has risen by 0.19%, positioning the steelmaker among the largest declines in the leading Paris index alongside Orange and Stellantis. Today's drop has pushed the stock slightly below its 20-day moving average (€58.49), a deviation of -0.74%, which until now had acted as a short-term pivot. However, the cushion remains comfortable over longer horizons: the price is 6.9% above the MM50 and nearly 34% above the MM200, indicating a still distinctly bullish long-term trend. The RSI at 58 remains neutral, sending no extreme signals, while the MACD has moved into slightly negative territory (-0.27), confirming a short-term momentum slowdown. The day's loss brings the weekly performance to +2.9%, without denting the nearly 117% gain over the past year.
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The data released in China provide a mixed signal for the steel industry. Industrial production accelerated to +4.5% year-on-year in May, but retail sales contracted by 0.6%, the first decline since the end of 2022, and fixed asset investment also fell due to the residential real estate sector. This sawtooth growth profile revives doubts about the demand for industrial metals, with Beijing remaining the world's largest consumer. Concurrently, the G7 summit in Évian is reviewing an American memorandum on Iran discussing a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by June 19, which is affecting Brent prices (-4.3% in session at $79.62/barrel, -16.7% over nine sessions). Today's consolidation also follows several strategic steps largely integrated by the market, including the sale of 10% of Vallourec's capital at €24 per share in May. The identified technical support at €51.26 remains distant, while the €62 resistance targeted during the last bullish phase is the next level to watch in case of a rebound.
« Looking ahead, we remain very positive. » ; « Outlook across the near, medium and long term remains positive »
Risks mentioned
Ukraine operations idled following multiple missile strikes with safety and logistical challenges; future cash spend expected to be limited
Temporary $2.5bn working capital investment during 9M 2026 creating near-term cash drag, though expected to unwind in 4Q
Weather disruption in Liberian mining and lagged benefit of higher steel prices yet to be reflected in Europe segment results
Opportunities identified
Enhanced EU trade measures beginning to rebalance European steel market fundamentals with all European blast furnaces back in operation
Strategic growth projects (3.9Mt EAF capacity by 2029 in Europe, Liberia ramp-up) supporting medium to long-term earnings growth
Group shipments in 2H 2026 expected to exceed 1H 2026; flat shipment growth expected to accelerate in 4Q with double-digit year-on-year increase
Outlook / guidance
Management commentary: The 9M 2026 investment in working capital of $2.5bn is expected to largely unwind in 4Q 2026, supporting a healthy cash generation and continued returns to shareholders and lower net debt.
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
