Coface Maintains 2.5% Global Growth in 2026 Despite Middle East Conflict
In its global economic barometer published on October 13, 2026, credit insurer Coface maintained its forecast for global growth at 2.5% for 2026, following 2.8% in 2025, and anticipates 2.6% in 2027. The study, which covers macroeconomic and sectoral scope, estimates the cost of the Middle East conflict on global growth in 2026 and 2027 at 0.5 percentage points.
Commodities, Policy Rates and Long-Term Rates Rising According to Coface
According to Coface, the resumption of hostilities between Iran and the United States and the intensification of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia weighed on supply chains and commodity prices over the summer. Oil crossed the $100 per barrel threshold in September. The credit insurer notes increases of over 50% for oil and nearly 100% for natural gas, even as oil volumes leaving the Gulf increased.
Agricultural prices also came under pressure, with wheat up 40% year-over-year, due to strikes on port terminals in the Black Sea and heat waves in Europe. These conditions revived concerns about an inflation rebound, and the Fed raised its rates by 25 basis points, following the ECB.
Coface indicates that the dollar appreciated by more than 6% in effective terms since its mid-January low, and that long-term rates advanced by more than 100 basis points in most major currency zones since end-February. According to the study, the global economy continues to resist for the time being, driven notably by investments in AI and associated wealth effects.
Food and Beverage Downgraded in Six Countries, Growth at Multiple Speeds
Coface carried out 3 country downgrades and 4 upgrades, as well as 20 changes in sectoral assessments (12 downgrades and 8 upgrades). Saudi Arabia moved from A3 to A4, the United Arab Emirates from A2 to A3 and Qatar from A3 to A4. The credit insurer anticipates a contraction in activity across the entire Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026.
The food and beverage sector was downgraded in France, Austria and Poland, primarily due to summer 2026 climatic conditions, as well as in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, due to their dependence on food imports. In Argentina, Coface cites multiple failures of agricultural operators, high costs and reduced margins.
On a regional basis, the study describes a US economy supported by household consumption, investments related to AI and an unemployment rate at 4%, as well as a Europe performing somewhat better than anticipated. In Asia, Vietnam (+8.4%) and India (+7.5%) contrast with weakening Chinese domestic demand. "The prolongation of the Middle East conflict revives the risk of a new global inflationary shock," stated Jean-Christophe Caffet, chief economist at Coface.
