Elior Shares Plunge 25% to €2.10 After Lowering Annual Targets

Degraded Guidance and an Italian Provision Severely Punish the Stock

The collective catering group released its first half 2025-2026 accounts on Wednesday, with organic growth limited to 1.3% and an adjusted EBITA margin of 3%. Importantly, management has lowered its annual targets: the organic growth forecast has been adjusted from a range of 3 to 4% to a range of 1 to 2%, and the EBITA margin target has been reduced to around 3%, from previously 3.5 to 3.7%. The targeted leverage ratio by the end of September 2026 is now about 3.5x. The delay in the deployment of new contracts and a €25 million provision related to a tariff dispute with an Italian railway operator explain the extent of the adjustment, as detailed in the semi-annual publication. The stock is trading at €2.1040, at the bottom of the SBF 120 while the index gains 0.40%.

Lowered Price Targets and Significantly Deteriorated Technical Setup

Some analysis offices have revised their recommendations. TP Icap Midcap has reduced its target from €3.00 to €2.80, maintaining a 'hold' rating. Oddo BHF has more significantly lowered its target, from €2.90 to €2.50, maintaining an 'underperform' rating. The day's drop breaches the three moving averages: the price is 22.65% below the MM20 (€2.72), 18.45% below the MM50 (€2.58), and 21.49% below the MM200 (€2.68). The support identified at €2.46 has now been substantially broken downwards. According to reviewed statements, the cumulative net short positions amount to 2.62% of the capital, held by four funds, a level almost stable over thirty days (-0.03 point). This modest but constant selling positioning reflects a pre-existing caution from a part of institutional investors, now validated by the guidance revision.