Nexity Shares Decline Further, Testing Key Support at €7.65
The real estate developer continues its downward trend at the close of this Friday's session. The stock remains under pressure in a Parisian market that is also trending downward, while short positions remain entrenched in the capital.
The Stock Remains Above Its €7.65 Support and Below Its Three Moving Averages
Nexity shares dropped 2.1% to €7.69 at the close, down from €7.85 the previous day. This decline brings the weekly drop to 5.6% and the three-month loss to 9.6%. The price is now testing its support at €7.65, a level around which the balance of power is now organized. Above this, all three moving averages remain out of reach: the MM20 at €8.27 (a 7.1% gap), the MM50 at €8.42, and especially the MM200 at €8.97, which is more than 14% above the current price. The RSI at 41 reflects this pressure without indicating any significant overselling. This setup extends the sequence that began in mid-May, when the stock broke its support at €8.22 before the general assembly.
Short Positions Established in Capital, Busy Operational Calendar
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According to reviewed statements, the cumulative net short positions reach 3.15% of the capital, carried by four funds. This level has slightly decreased by 0.17 points in a month but remains high. This indicates that some institutional investors are positioned against the stock or are looking to hedge an exposure, without recent dynamics indicating an increase in bearish bets. Operationally, the group announced yesterday the launch with the Mousquetaires Group of a 400-unit housing project in Villeneuve-Loubet, deliverable by 2032. This long timeline fits into the developer's urban regeneration strategy. Over a year, the stock has fallen nearly 19%. The €7.65 support, tested at the close, remains the technical level to watch going forward.
SectorImmobilier / construction · Promotion immobilière / logement›Construction résidentielle
Context
Period
Period: 9M2025
Guidance from the release
L’activité commerciale de Nexity continue de s’améliorer au 3ème trimestre ... renouer avec une croissance rentable dès 2025.
Fin du dispositif Pinel entraînant une forte baisse des investisseurs particuliers (-45 %) ; accédants en forte progression (+26 % pour Nexity sur 9M) soutenus par l’extension du PTZ et des taux stabilisés autour de 3,1 % ; marché tertiaire en bas de cycle avec livraisons 2024 impactant le CA tertiaire 2025 ; backlog à 3,9 Md€ (?1,5 année d’activité).
Risks mentioned
Dégradation de l’environnement macro-économique (guidance conditionnelle)
Risque lié aux municipales ralentissant l’instruction des permis de construire
Baisse du marché de détail liée à la fin du Pinel (-45 % investisseurs particuliers)
Segment tertiaire en bas de cycle et absence de rechargement du backlog tertiaire
Opportunities identified
Extension du PTZ favorisant la demande des accédants et des terrains à bâtir (+41 %)
Croissance des activités d’exploitation (résidences étudiantes, coworking) avec taux d’occupation élevés
Partenariat Carrefour avec potentiel CA à terminaison estimé à plus de 2 Md€
Recalibrage de l’offre commerciale et développement sélectif améliorant les délais d’écoulement (5 mois)
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