Safran's Stock Rebounds 2.03% to €276.90 Days Before Its General Meeting
The aerospace engine manufacturer regains momentum this Monday afternoon. The stock is up 2.03% at €276.90, in a CAC 40 that is almost stable (+0.22% at 7,970 points). The stock is among the top gainers in the CAC 40, three days before the general meeting.
A Technical Rebound That Leaves the Stock Below Its Three Moving Averages
Safran gains ground after several challenging sessions. The stock had lost 2.86% last Friday at €275.10, sliding towards its support at €265.20, as mentioned in the previous brief. The rebound remains limited on a graphical level. The price at €276.90 is still below the MM20 (€281.19), with a gap of -1.53%, and even more significantly below the MM50 (€293.13) and the MM200 (€299.69), over 7% from the latter. The RSI at 42 remains neutral, indicating a lack of strong buying momentum. Over three months, the decline reaches 18.77%. Today's rise mitigates this movement without erasing it. The stock maintains a mid-range position within the Bollinger Bands (42%), a configuration without extreme tension, leaving €265.20 as the next low level to watch.
Tense Valuation Approaching the General Meeting on May 21
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The session context remains mixed. Brent is trading above $110 a barrel amid tensions in the Middle East and the prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a situation that traditionally weighs on air transport and thus on engine manufacturers. Sovereign yields are tightening in parallel, with the 10-year U.S. bond reaching 4.63%, its highest since February 2025. In terms of valuation, Safran is trading at about 27.6 times the earnings expected for the current fiscal year and 22.6 times those of the following year, according to the consensus of 19 analysts recorded on May 12. The average for the Industrials sector is 17.6 times. The expected growth in earnings per share from one year to the next is set at 22.2%. Berenberg had confirmed its buy rating with a target of €355 last week. The next key event is the general meeting on May 21, followed by the first-half results on July 28.
"2025 a été une année remarquable pour nos activités, portées par un trafic passagers record et une dynamique soutenue dans la défense."
Safran publie des résultats annuels 2025 solides: chiffre d'affaires consolidé de 31,189 milliards d'euros (+12,5 % YoY), résultat opérationnel courant consolidé de 4,787 milliards d'euros (+14,4 %), EBITDA de 6,318 milliards d'euros, cash-flow libre de 3,921 milliards d'euros; perspectives 2026: CA attendu en hausse de 12-15 %, COI entre 6,1 et 6,2 milliards d'euros et FCF entre 4,4 et 4,6 milliards d'euros, ambi tions 2028 relevées.
Risks mentioned
Capacités de production de la chaîne d’approvisionnement
Opportunities identified
Croissance soutenue des activités d’après-vente et défense
Livraisons et contenu des services liés au LEAP et à l’aéronautique civile
Dynamique du trafic aérien favorable et extension des commandes dans la défense
Outlook / guidance
Expected revenue: Le chiffre d'affaires 2026 est attendu entre 12 % et 15 % de hausse par rapport à l'année 2025.
Expected EBITDA: EBITDA 2026 attendu entre 6,1 et 6,2 milliards d'euros.
Management commentary: Pour 2026, Safran prévoit une croissance du chiffre d'affaires entre 12 % et 15 %, un résultat opérationnel courant entre 6,1 et 6,2 milliards d'euros et un flux de trésorerie libre entre 4,4 et 4,6 milliards d'euros, sous réserve de l'exécution des livraisons et du calendrier de paiement des États clients.
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