Ubisoft Entertainment Shares Dip 2.35%, Partially Erasing Recent Gains
The French video game publisher's stock falls in mid-morning trading, contrary to a slightly positive Paris market. The shares are giving back some of last week's gains, while pressure from short sellers remains a fundamental issue for the stock.
A Retreat that Brings the Stock Back to its 20-Day Moving Average
Ubisoft Entertainment's stock drops 2.35% to €5.15, after closing at €5.28 the previous day. The stock is now exactly at its 20-day moving average (€5.15), a technical pivot point clearly visible after the recent upward trend. The 50-day moving average (€5.06) is just below the current price (+1.82%), while the 200-day moving average at €5.93 keeps the stock 13.12% below its long-term trend. The RSI at 57 indicates a still neutral momentum, with no signs of exhaustion.
Over the week, the stock maintains a gain of 5.64%, but has lost 2.5% over the month, highlighting the instability of its market performance. The decline occurs in an otherwise bullish market environment, with the CAC 40 up 0.21% and the SBF 120 up 0.12%. The session also unfolds against a backdrop of a volatility spike, with the VIX index jumping over 10% to 19.13 points, which may weigh on stocks most sensitive to flows like Ubisoft. The stock is now approaching the technical support identified at €4.68, already tested last week during a previous tension phase.
Short Positions Slowly Recede but Remain at 13.2% of Capital
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According to reviewed statements, eleven funds hold a net short position of 13.19% of the capital, as of the latest update on June 22. The level has decreased by 1.35 points over thirty days (from 14.54% a month ago), a modest covering movement that does not alter the overall situation: Ubisoft remains one of the most shorted stocks on the Paris stock exchange. This parameter indicates that a significant portion of institutional investors are positioned against the stock or are looking to hedge exposure.
It does not specify the precise motivations of these funds, but it partially explains the daily fluctuations in both directions. On the fundamentals side, during the announcement of the annual accounts for 2025/2026 (on May 20, 2026), the group reported a significant reduction in its net debt (from €885 million to €187.3 million) and anticipated a stronger and more diversified content pipeline for the 2027-28 and 2028-29 fiscal years. In the short term, the stock is trading within the technical corridor defined by its 20-day moving average at €5.15 and the support at €4.68, a key level for the continuation of the sequence.
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« Nous avons enregistré au premier trimestre un net bookings légèrement supérieur à notre objectif. »
Le chiffre d'affaires IFRS 15 du premier trimestre 2026-27 recule de 13,7 % à 268,2 M€ et le net bookings de 9,2 % à 255,8 M€, légèrement au-dessus de l'objectif d'environ 250,0 M€, la baisse reflétant une base de comparaison élevée liée à Assassin's Creed Shadows. Le net bookings back-catalogue s'établit à 221,0 M€ (-15,1 %) et le net bookings digital à 206,2 M€ (-17,6 %), tandis que le PRI est quasi stable à 151,3 M€. Invincible: Guarding the Globe signe un trimestre record. Le début du T2 est marqué par le lancement réussi d'Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced (3,5 millions d'exemplaires en sell-in, note de 84). La transformation se poursuit avec la fermeture de studios et la nomination de Christoph Hartmann à la tête de la Creative House 2.
Risks mentioned
Net bookings attendu en baisse d'un pourcentage à un chiffre élevé sur l'exercice 2026-27
Marge opérationnelle non-IFRS attendue négative sur l'exercice 2026-27
Consommation de free cash-flow pouvant atteindre 500 M€ sur l'exercice
Échéances de dette à refinancer : revue en cours des options de financement
Opportunities identified
Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced dépasse les attentes annuelles en 14 jours (3,5 M d'unités)
Sortie de Rayman Legends Retold le 1er octobre 2026 et de Just Dance Decades of Hits le 13 octobre
Performance record d'Invincible: Guarding the Globe sur le segment Mobile
Pipeline de contenus nettement plus solide en 2027-28 et 2028-29 (Assassin's Creed, Far Cry, Ghost Recon)
Retour attendu à un EBIT non-IFRS positif et à une génération de free cash-flow dès 2027-28
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
