Vivendi Gains Over 5%, Boosted by Speculation of a Possible Takeover Bid
Vivendi's stock stands out in the Paris Stock Exchange session, driven by renewed interest in the legal case between CIAM fund and Vincent Bolloré. The disclosure of an internal email from the Bolloré Group dated August 9, 2017, titled 'De Facto Control of Bolloré Group over Vivendi', fuels speculation about a possible buyout offer for minority shareholders if the appeals court were to acknowledge the existence of de facto control.
A Jump of 5.36% Propels the Stock Among the Top Gainers of the SBF 120
In early afternoon trading, Vivendi's stock is up 5.36%, at €2.398, among the strongest gains in the SBF 120, while the broader index is up 0.74%. The stock thus crosses the €2.35 resistance level during the session and remains above this threshold. This rise follows the publication of a new element in the dispute over the Vivendi spin-off, completed at the end of 2024 to separately list Canal+ and Havas. According to these revelations, the French Financial Markets Authority presented to the Paris Court of Appeal an internal email from the Bolloré Group in which it sought to justify the consolidation of Vivendi in its accounts under IFRS 10 standard.
Market Reacts to the Hypothesis of an Imposed Offer
The stock market interest in the case stems from its potential consequence for minority shareholders. CIAM believes that Bolloré exercised de facto control over Vivendi despite holding a minority stake, and that the end-2024 spin-off should have been accompanied by a buyout offer. If this interpretation were to be upheld by the court, the scenario of an imposed offer would become central to the stock's valuation. This prospect is favorably interpreted by part of the market, as a buyout offer generally includes a premium over the stock price. However, today's rebound does not mean that this outcome is certain: Vincent Bolloré's defense precisely contests the equivalence between accounting control and legal control, arguing that the 2017 email was solely aimed at meeting the IFRS 10 consolidation criteria.
Crossing the €2.35 Mark Revives the Short-Term Technical Scenario
From a technical standpoint, moving above the €2.35 mark improves the short-term configuration. However, the stock remains below its 200-day moving average, located at €2.50, which it is still 4.08% under. This threshold now becomes the main medium-term technical reference, following the April low that brought the stock below €2. The shorter averages already reflect the recent acceleration: Vivendi is trading more than 10% above its 20-day moving average, at €2.17, and nearly 17% above its 50-day moving average, at €2.05. The RSI stands at 60, a still neutral level, which does not indicate any immediate overheating. Over three months, the stock's progress now reaches 8.9%.
