After a 34% increase in three months, can TotalEnergies continue to accelerate?

A strong rally driven by solid technical momentum

Over the past three months, since trading at 56.90 euros, TotalEnergies has experienced a series of gains, increasing by nearly 5.4% just in the past week. Over the past year, its performance has reached 30.65%. The stock is now significantly above its 20-day (70.60 euros), 50-day (64.76 euros), and 200-day (56.43 euros) moving averages, indicating a well-established upward trend across all timeframes.
However, the RSI at 73 suggests that the stock is entering overbought territory, a level that has historically tended to precede consolidation phases. Additionally, the price is approaching the identified technical resistance at 78.59 euros, a threshold that could limit its short-term progression.
Meanwhile, the announced de-escalation on Sunday between Washington and Tehran regarding the Strait of Hormuz has alleviated pressure on energy markets, following a chaotic session for the CAC 40. Shell, a direct sector peer, rose by 1.17% during the session. Nevertheless, the VIX remains high at 26.78, reflecting ongoing uncertainties in the markets.

What This Movement Means for an Investor Today

Notably, UBS raised its price target on TOTALENERGIES from 75 to 89 euros on Sunday, while maintaining its buy recommendation. Based on the current price of 76.30 euros, this target implies a potential upside of approximately 16.6%. This is a positive signal for investors seeking fundamental catalysts.
The financial calendar also offers important benchmarks: the ex-dividend date for the third installment is scheduled for March 31, followed by the release of first-quarter results on April 29. These two events could drive buying interest or, conversely, trigger profit-taking if the numbers disappoint.
However, the question of timing is legitimate after such a rally. The RSI in the overbought zone and the immediate proximity of the resistance at 78.59 euros suggest caution in the very short term. Nonetheless, the stock's particularly low beta of 0.11 indicates a weak correlation with market movements, an advantage in an environment where volatility remains high. For an investor, the TotalEnergies case presents tangible arguments—raised price target, dividend yield, upcoming quarterly publication—but the optimal entry window might be better located on a potential technical pullback towards the identified support at 62.51 euros, or at least towards the 20-day moving average, rather than at current levels.