Air Liquide Stock: A Contrarian 2025 Against the CAC 40, Amid Currency Fluctuations and Operational Resilience

A stock impacted by currency fluctuations and the April downturn

The bulk of the stock underperformance was concentrated in the third quarter, where the decline in reported sales (-2.4%) was magnified by an unfavorable exchange rate effect of 4.2% and falling energy prices. These factors, contractually passed on to clients, do not impact profitability but mechanically weigh on revenue perception. The economic slowdown in China at the end of 2025 also affected volumes, creating temporary pressure in a context where the euro appreciated against major currencies, posing a headwind for stock performance.

In the spring, a marked decline due to announcements about US tariffs saw the stock drop nearly 8% in just three days in early April, falling from 174.3 to 160.6 euros. This correction occurred in an environment marked by macroeconomic uncertainties and sluggish demand in some regions. A partial rebound followed in mid-April (+4.6% in five days), then another increase in August (+3.77% over four days), but it failed to sustainably break the major technical resistance at 186 euros, which was unsuccessfully tested at the end of May and August.

Solid Fundamentals Despite Seemingly Modest Growth

Over the first nine months of the year, Air Liquide achieved a revenue of 20.3 billion euros, marking a 1.9% increase on a comparable basis in the third quarter.
CEO François Jackow described this performance as « very solid, » highlighting « the relevance of the business model » based on on-site production unit installations at customer locations, which provides structural resilience during uncertain times.
The group confirmed its ability to increase its operating margin and achieve growth in recurring net income at constant exchange rates by 2025, maintaining its ambition for a cumulative progression of 460 basis points over the 2022-2026 period.

This guidance demonstrates strong operational discipline, the result of the ADVANCE strategic plan that continues to generate efficiency gains. The Healthcare sector grew by more than 4%, and the resilience of the Industrial Merchant segment partly offset the challenges observed in the Large Industries business, particularly in Germany and the Benelux. The investment backlog reached a record level of 4.9 billion euros by the end of September, while the twelve-month opportunity portfolio remained at 4.1 billion.

2026: Balancing Cautious Outlooks and Potential for Technical Recovery

The consensus among analysts indicates an average target price of 197 euros, suggesting a potential 23% increase from the closing price of 160.26 euros as of December 31, 2025. This projection reflects confidence in the group's ability to continue improving its margin and benefiting from the gradual contribution of its new investments.
The two main drivers for 2026 are the ELYgator project, a 200 MW electrolyzer in the Netherlands representing an investment exceeding 500 million euros, and the planned acquisition of DIG Airgas in South Korea for 2.85 billion euros, which is expected to contribute to net income the year following its integration. Major investments in electronics, notably in Dresden and Singapore, along with the development of hydrogen activities in the United States, are structural growth drivers. However, risks remain: persistent unfavorable exchange rate effects, sluggish demand in certain geographic regions, and the cyclical nature of equipment sales in Electronics. The appreciation of the euro would pose a challenge, while a weakening of the single currency would mechanically boost valuation. On the technical front, overcoming the resistance at 169.6 euros is the first threshold to cross for reigniting a sustainable upward trend.