Airbus Stock: +29% in 2025, Twice the Growth of the CAC 40 Despite Ongoing Industry Turbulence

A Year of Contrasting Stock Markets Driven by Industrial Fluctuations

In 2025, Airbus outperformed the CAC 40 by nearly 18 points, demonstrating the fundamental strength of the stock despite periods of high volatility.
The main tension was concentrated at the beginning of April, when the stock lost 15.94% in just four sessions, dropping from 162.74 to 136.8 euros between April 2 and April 7. This sharp decline coincided with a general market turbulence period but also reflected investor nervousness regarding the group's production challenges. Conversely, a rebound of 5.31% began in late April-early May, indicating that the market was gradually acknowledging the group's ability to meet its financial targets despite constraints.
In December, Airbus eventually revised its delivery target from 820 to 790 aircraft due to a quality issue at a supplier affecting fuselage panels, impacting the flow of A320 family deliveries. Despite this setback, the stock ended the year at nearly 198 euros, about 45% above its April low.

Strong Half-Year Results Despite Operational Constraints

In the first half of 2025, Airbus reported revenue of 29.6 billion euros, up 3% from the previous year, while the company delivered 306 commercial aircraft, slightly below the 323 delivered in the first half of 2024. This gap between revenue growth and declining volumes reflects an improvement in unit profitability, as confirmed by the adjusted EBIT figures. Adjusted operating income increased by 58% to 2.2 billion euros, and net profit rose by 85% to 1.5 billion euros. This momentum is largely attributed to progress in the Defense and Space division, which has undergone significant restructuring. Airbus has maintained its financial forecasts for 2025, aiming for around 790 commercial aircraft deliveries, an adjusted EBIT of approximately 7.0 billion euros, and free cash flow before customer financing of around 4.5 billion euros. The maintenance of financial guidance despite the drop in deliveries was positively received by analysts, confirming that the company's operational leverage is stronger than anticipated and that unit profitability is improving. However, the major challenge remains managing working capital needs, heavily impacted by dozens of aircraft that have been assembled but are not deliverable due to a lack of available engines.

2026 Outlook Focuses on Industrial Normalization

The consensus from 20 analysts now sets the average price target at 225 euros, indicating a potential upside of 13.5% compared to the annual closing price of 197.82 euros. This valuation reflects confidence in the group's ability to gradually manage supply chain pressures.
The main growth driver lies in the normalization of engine deliveries for the A320neo, which will determine the release of accumulated stock and a return to positive cash flow. However, risks remain centered on industrial execution: any new quality issues with suppliers or additional delays from engine manufacturers could impact the ramp-up trajectory. The market will also watch the integration of activities purchased from Spirit AeroSystems, planned for the fourth quarter of 2025, which is expected to secure a critical part of the supply chain. In an environment where aerospace demand remains strong and competitor Boeing struggles to recover, Airbus possesses undeniable structural advantages. However, the ability to turn this record order book into actual deliveries remains the real challenge for 2026.