CAC 40 experiences volatility and jumps over 3% within minutes

A Sudden Shift Following Trump's Announcement

Monday, March 23, will be remembered as one of the most turbulent trading days of the year in Paris. Early morning saw the CAC 40 tumble by more than 2%, driven down by the prospect of imminent US military strikes on Iran. The ultimatum issued by Washington concerning the Strait of Hormuz—a vital artery for global oil trade—had left investors unsettled. Meanwhile, Brent crude soared past $114 a barrel, a level not seen since the Ukrainian crisis in June 2022.

Then, the situation shifted. Donald Trump reported « very fruitful » discussions with Tehran and announced a postponement of the strikes. The effect was immediate. Within hours, the Paris index recovered all its losses and moved significantly into positive territory. By 12:37 PM, the CAC 40 was up 1.46% at 7,777.74, with the SBF 120 rising by a similar margin (+1.46%). Almost the entire index was in positive territory: 34 values in the CAC 40 were up, with only 5 down and one unchanged.

However, this dramatic turnaround does not erase the damage accumulated in recent weeks. The leading index of the Paris Stock Exchange marked a new six-month low, following a similar dip on Friday, March 20. The ongoing crisis around the Strait of Hormuz continues to weigh heavily on investor sentiment, with the extreme volatility of this session serving as the most visible evidence.

Société Générale, ArcelorMittal, and Luxury Lead the Rebound

The relief brought about by diplomatic de-escalation primarily benefits cyclical stocks, which are most sensitive to geopolitical climates. Société Générale surges 6.07% to 64.68 euros, marking the day's best performance. ArcelorMittal follows with a 5.09% increase to 44.15 euros. Airbus isn't lagging behind, gaining 4.96% to 168.90 euros.

The luxury sector is fully participating in this movement. Kering jumps 4.91% to 245.65 euros. Hermès advances 3.86% to 1,720 euros, even as Morgan Stanley lowered its price target for the stock from 2,530 to 2,280 euros on Monday, while keeping its recommendation unchanged.

The scale of the rebound primarily reflects the severity of the panic-driven movement that preceded it. The stocks rebounding the strongest are also those that suffered the most at the start of the session, in a classic pendulum swing.

TotalEnergies Falls Despite UBS Raising Its Target

Contrary to the rest of the market, TotalEnergies falls by 2.09% to 75.35 euros, becoming the worst performer on the CAC 40, which is paradoxical given that Brent crude oil is soaring above $114. This movement reflects the specific nervousness in the oil sector amid direct threats to supply routes. Nevertheless, UBS raised its price target for TotalEnergies from 75 to 89 euros on Monday while maintaining its buy recommendation.

Among other declines of the day, Euronext slips by 0.89% to 134.20 euros. Orange edges down 0.67% to 17 euros, on the same day the company announced the appointment of Frédéric Sanchez as the future chairman of the board, replacing Jacques Aschenbroich, who has reached the age limit. Additionally, Goldman Sachs raised its price target for Orange from 16 to 17.50 euros, maintaining its unchanged opinion. Carrefour (-0.49% to 15.17 euros) and Pernod Ricard (-0.22% to 64.38 euros) round out the few declines of the day.

Overall, this unusual session underscores how much tensions in the Middle East remain the determining factor for European markets in this spring of 2026. Diplomatic calm was enough to reverse the trend in a matter of minutes, but the situation remains in limbo pending negotiations between Washington and Tehran.