Carrefour: A Mixed Year Amid Operational Turbulence

A Chaotic Market Journey Shaped by Three Shocks

Carrefour's underperformance compared to the CAC 40 mainly occurred in the first half of the year. The first dip happened in mid-February, following the release of its 2024 results. The market reacted negatively to mixed annual results and disappointing outlooks, with a net profit drop of 11% while analysts had expected better. The stock plummeted by 9.35% in three days, losing nearly one euro. A few weeks later, at the end of May, the stock fell again by 8.61% over three sessions, dropping from 14.41 to 13.17 euros. Finally, at the end of June, another decline of 7.84% completed this correction phase, bringing the price down to around 11.75 euros. These three events reflect the market's ongoing skepticism regarding the group's operational execution, particularly in Europe outside France where profitability was significantly impacted.

2024 Results Decline, Cautious Outlook for 2025

Carrefour anticipated a slight increase in operating income, EBITDA, and free cash flow by 2025. This guidance, seen as conservative following a disappointing 2024, did not reassure investors. The initial signals from the first half of 2025 were mixed: the group's net income amounted to 326 million euros in H1 2025, up 28% compared to the previous year, and the free cash flow showed significant improvement. However, the growth remains modest given stock volatility and ongoing uncertainty surrounding the profitability trajectory in Europe. The company continues to focus on gaining market share in France and Spain while seeking to improve its cost structure in an inflationary environment that is affecting volume.

2026 Outlook: Cautious Consensus, Catalysts Yet to Be Confirmed

Analysts display varied price targets, reflecting limited visibility on the group's ability to turn its strategic initiatives into sustainable value creation. However, there are levers available: the full integration of Carrefour Brazil, the development of retail media via Carrefour Links, and the strengthening of private label brands. These strategic bets will need to be validated by tangible results by 2026. On the other hand, risks remain: increased competitive pressure in Europe, debt management in a high-interest-rate environment, and reliance on the successful execution of the €4 billion savings plan. The stock is now trading in a neutral technical zone, between a support at 12.85 euros and a resistance at 14.37 euros, leaving little room for short-term maneuvering.