Euronext: Why the Stock Outperformed the CAC 40 by 8 Points in 2025

Outperformance Focused on the First Half of the Year

Euronext's stock recorded an annual increase of 19.85%, surpassing the CAC 40’s 11.43% by over eight points during the same period. This outperformance was primarily built in the first half of the year, particularly between late March and early April, with a 6.96% rise in just six days. The stock rose from 130.7 to 139.8 euros amidst significant volatility in European markets and the mid-May release of notably increased April trading volumes. The market reacted especially to a 15% uptick in the average daily trading volumes on cash markets compared to March 2025, fueled by US trade tensions. However, summer brought its share of corrections: from late July to early August, the stock dropped 5.7% in eight days, falling from 147.3 to 138.9 euros. This phase coincided with the seasonal volume decline linked to the summer lull, a typical structural slowdown for stock market operators. The stock ended the year at 128 euros, between its technical support at 122.5 euros and resistance at 132.3 euros.

Biannual and Quarterly Results Exceed Expectations

Euronext reported record figures in the second quarter of 2025, with revenue reaching 465.8 million euros, an increase of 12.8%, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. Adjusted EBITDA rose to nearly 300 million euros, showing a 15.8% increase, while adjusted net earnings per share stood at 2.02 euros, up 27%. These performances reflect the diversification of the group's business model: non-transactional revenue accounted for 58% of the total and covered 161% of underlying operating costs. The third quarter confirmed this trend with revenue of 438.1 million euros and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 63.2%. Furthermore, Euronext completed a 300 million euro share buyback program in March 2025, launched in November 2024, and acquired Admincontrol in May, strengthening its Corporate & Investor Solutions division. On the operational front, the operator also announced the success of its public exchange offer for the Athens Stock Exchange (ATHEX), securing a 74.3% stake in November 2025. The guidance for underlying costs in 2025 has even been revised downward, from 670 million euros to 660 million euros, thanks to strict discipline.

2026 marked by European expansion and new capital allocations

The analysts' consensus, based on about fifteen recommendations, shows an average target of 147.73 euros, indicating a 15.4% potential rise from the closing price of 128 euros. Estimates range from 120 to 173 euros, reflecting some disparity in views but a generally favorable buying tone. Euronext benefits from several structural levers for 2026: the planned launch in July 2026 of the European consolidated tape EuroCTP, of which it is a shareholder, expected to enhance transparency and access to market data; the gradual expansion of its central securities depository (CSD) services in France, Italy, Belgium, and the Netherlands starting from September 2026, strengthening its recurring post-trade revenues; and the continued integration of ATHEX, opening new business opportunities in Greece. The group also announced a new share buyback program in November 2025 valued at 250 million euros, approximately 2% of the capital, running until March 2026. However, there are several points of concern: the structural dependence on volumes in case of a market apathy return, the execution timeline of the CSD expansion involving significant investments, and an ever-evolving European regulatory environment. Therefore, 2026 will be the year for operational demonstration of the « Innovate for Growth 2027 » strategy, in an environment where the integration of European capital markets remains a crucial political and economic issue.