Oil Surges: Washington-Tehran Escalation Boosts Sector by 16% in a Month

A momentum driven by Brent and overheating stocks

Over the past month, 11 of the 12 tracked stocks have shown an increase, indicating a broader trend rather than an isolated dynamic. On the last trading day before the Easter weekend, MAUREL ET PROM led the charge with a jump of 7.48% (+14.95% over the month), followed by TECHNIP ENERGIES, which gained 5.60% (+11.87% over the period), and Galp Energia up by 3.88% (+12.87%). Heavyweights are not lagging behind: Shell advanced by 2.73% during the session and TOTALENERGIES increased by 2.40%, both giants mechanically driving the entire sector thanks to their combined market capitalizations of over 400 billion euros.

The energy sector broadly also had a distinctly positive session at +2.41%, with 20 out of 25 stocks rising, confirming that the momentum extends beyond the strict oil perimeter. The catalyst is clearly identified: Brent jumped more than 6% within 24 hours, climbing back to around 108 dollars a barrel after Iran's denial of a potential ceasefire with Washington. The verbal and military escalation between the two powers sustains extreme volatility in crude prices, with the barrel briefly breaking and then bouncing back above the symbolic threshold of 100 dollars within a few hours. The VIX, at 24.54 points with a slight decline of 2.81%, reflects continued high nervousness but no further escalation at this stage.

Strong Momentum but Signs of Caution

The rally in the oil sector is taking place within a technical setup that calls for caution despite its strength. The sectoral RSI weighted by capitalizations reaches 71.3, crossing the overbought threshold, indicating a risk of short-term consolidation. Shell even shows an RSI of 76, while VALLOUREC peaks at 72. Nonetheless, the underlying trend remains firmly oriented: weighted prices are well above the 50- and 200-day moving averages, signaling a bullish momentum in the medium to long term. The sectoral MACD remains above its signal line, confirming that the upward momentum has not yet been challenged. This is not just a technical rebound but a trend driven by a major geopolitical catalyst.

The central question for investors is the duration and intensity of the U.S.-Iran conflict: as long as Brent remains pressured above 100 dollars, the sector has robust fundamental support. However, the extreme volatility of crude oil—capable of varying by 6% in a single day based on contradictory statements from the belligerents—constitutes an equally significant risk factor. Only FUGRO, exposed to oilfield services, is an exception with a 0.19% decline in the session and a depressed RSI at 35, indicating a decoupling from the rest of the segment.