Total Stock: A Mixed 2025 Report, Recovery Struggles to Convince
While the CAC 40 posted a 10.42% increase for 2025, Total had to settle for a 4.16% rise, underperforming by nearly 6 percentage points. The stock ended the year at 55.59 euros, in an uncertain range between a support level of 54.50 euros and a resistance level of 57.18 euros. This decoupling occurred in a year marked by a sharp drop in crude prices, concerns over debt, and a scaled-back share buyback policy, although hydrocarbon production continues to grow.
April 2025: The Perfect Storm Weighing Down the Year
The bulk of the annual underperformance was concentrated over a few days in April 2025, when the stock dropped 15.46% in five sessions, plummeting from 59.49 euros to 50.29 euros. The market punished the group's dramatically rising net debt, which nearly doubled in a year to reach $20.10 billion in the first quarter of 2025, compared to $14.21 billion a year earlier.
This deterioration of the balance sheet occurred in a context of significantly declining results and uncertainties related to tariffs imposed by Donald Trump, which weighed on oil demand prospects and kept refinery margins under pressure. The drop was also exacerbated by the announcement of US tariffs, which accelerated the stock’s decline.
Attempts at recovery in the following months, especially in May and October with gains of 4.62% and 4.90% respectively, never allowed the stock to regain its early-year levels. Yet, in the third quarter, TotalEnergies posted an adjusted net income of $4.0 billion, consistent with the previous year, and a cash flow of $7.1 billion, up 4%, despite a more than $10 per barrel drop in oil prices year-over-year.
A Fundamental Insight Between Resilience and Concern
In the first nine months of 2025, TotalEnergies generated $136.4 billion in revenue, with an EBITDA of $10.3 billion and a net income of $3.7 billion in the third quarter. These figures reflect some resilience of the integrated model in a challenging environment for the entire sector. The accretive growth in hydrocarbon production of over 4% year-on-year and the improvement in downstream results partially offset the decline in prices. Guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025 anticipated production between 2.525 and 2.575 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, representing an increase of more than 4% year-over-year, and net investments between $17 billion and $17.5 billion for the full year.
The debt ratio, which reached 17.3% in the third quarter, is expected to stabilize between 15% and 16% by year-end, an improvement from the peak of the second quarter. However, the group revised its share buyback policy downward in September, lowering the amount to $1.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, down from the previous $2 billion, and planning between $750 million and $1.5 billion per quarter in 2026, effectively halving the return to shareholders in a scenario where Brent prices range between $60 and $70. This reduction disappointed investors, even though the quarterly dividend was maintained at 0.85 euros, an increase of 7.6%.
Outlook 2026: Balancing Opportunities and Ongoing Vulnerabilities
The consensus among analysts values Total with an average target that, when compared to the closing price of 55.59 euros, suggests limited upside potential, considering the persistent uncertainties surrounding crude oil prices and demand trends. Structural opportunities remain: hydrocarbon production growth is expected to continue with a trajectory of +3% per year between 2024 and 2030, supported by the ramp-up of projects in Brazil, the United States, and Malaysia, as well as increased integration into LNG, with the decision to invest in Train 4 of Rio Grande LNG and signed long-term contracts.
The group has also demonstrated its ability to capitalize on its renewable portfolio, by divesting 50% of assets in North America and France for approximately 1.5 billion dollars. Refining margins in Europe, which rebounded in the third quarter, could also provide occasional support. However, many risks remain: the volatility of oil and gas prices, geopolitical and regulatory uncertainties, as well as the conditions precedent linked to certain transactions. If the group manages to maintain its debt ratio within the guided range and generate enough cash flow to finance its growth without deteriorating its balance sheet, the stock could regain a more favorable momentum in 2026. Otherwise, the pressure on shareholder returns might persist, limiting the appeal of the stock for yield-seeking investors.
This content has been automatically translated using artificial intelligence. While we strive for accuracy, some nuances may differ from the original French version.
