Alstom Stock: Strong Weekly Gain Driven by Better-Than-Expected Half-Year Results
This week, Alstom has seen a significant uptick in the market following the release of its solid half-year results, which many industry observers have praised. The stock closed sharply higher, benefiting from an overall positive stock market environment despite some profit-taking on major indices. The railway group's momentum also stood out in a context of moderate market volatility.
Weekly Performance and Financial Highlights
At the end of the week, Alstom's stock price settled at €23.69, marking a substantial weekly increase of 12.60%. This performance exceeds that of the CAC 40 (+2.58%) and the SBF 120 (+2.52%) over the same period, highlighting the stock's specific strength. Over the past year, the stock has gained 20.56%, indicating a significant recovery from the levels seen at the beginning of 2025. This week, Alstom's advance accelerated following the release of its first-half 2025/2026 results, which exceeded market expectations. The half-year revenue reached €9.1 billion, representing an organic growth of 8%, higher than initial expectations. Adjusted operating income rose to €580 million, up 13% year-on-year, and the adjusted operating margin improved to 6.4%. The net income attributable to the group quadrupled to €220 million. Commercially, Alstom reported a solid order book totaling €96.1 billion, with a book-to-bill ratio above 1, providing excellent visibility on future sales. The only downside was the negative free cash flow of -€740 million, although this level is within the anticipated range for the sector's seasonality. Overall, this release reassured the market, leading to a sharp rebound in the stock, contrasting with the consolidation seen in the CAC 40 after a historical peak.
Upgraded Financial Outlook
Supported by these robust financial indicators, Alstom's management has raised its forecast for organic revenue growth, now expected to exceed 5% for the fiscal year 2025/2026. Other targets are maintained, including an adjusted operating margin of around 7% and a free cash flow of between €200 and €400 million for the current fiscal year. The strong start to the fiscal year confirms the group's recovery trajectory, supported by the expansion of its activities in Europe and solid performances in the Rolling Stock and Signaling segments. Over the semester, Europe emerged as the main growth driver, with revenue increasing by 8.5%. This momentum fits into a period where major railway contracts and the energy transition fuel Alstom's ambitions in its key markets.
Technical Perspective
From a technical standpoint, the stock is now trading close to its resistance level identified at €23.69, clearly surpassing its main short and long-term moving averages (MM50 at €21.77 and MM200 at €20.81). This setup reflects an acceleration of the positive trend, while monthly volatility remains moderate at 7.92. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 67, indicating sustained buying momentum, yet not reaching overbought levels. The MACD confirms the recovery, displaying a line above its signal. The Bollinger Bands, ranging from €20.59 to €23.14, now frame a price positioned on the upper boundary, indicative of the strength of the movement. Over the week, the combination of these elements highlights the significant strengthening of the upward trend following the semi-annual announcements.
