ArcelorMittal Shares Surge 2.83% at Close Despite a Declining CAC 40

Technical Outlook

Technically, ArcelorMittal is now very close to its resistance level at 35.30 euros, a threshold it has not crossed for several months. The stock has gradually consolidated its upward trend over the past few weeks, as confirmed by the positioning of the price above the 50-day moving average, established at 32.47 euros. The RSI indicator shows a neutral reading at 53, leaving room for progression before reaching the overbought zone. The MACD, in positive territory with a line at 0.34 above the signal at 0.29, continues to support the bullish momentum that has been building for several weeks. On a broader scale, the steelmaker's performance remains impressive with a gain of 44.63% over the year, significantly outperforming the CAC 40, which has only risen by 9.28% over the same period. Over three months, the stock has gained 19.58%, reflecting a renewed interest from investors in the steel sector. In the short term, the weekly gain of 1.31% confirms the strength of the momentum. These elements indicate a favorable underlying trend, reinforced by the positioning of the price well above the 200-day moving average located at 28.66 euros.

Analyst Perspectives and Strategic Movements

On November 17, UBS downgraded its recommendation on ArcelorMittal from 'buy' to 'neutral' while raising its price target to 35.40 euros. The Swiss bank justifies this decision by the strong progression of 52% in the stock since the beginning of the year, estimating that the upside potential linked to expectations of restrictions on European steel imports is now largely integrated into the valuation. UBS notes that the stock is trading at about 4.8 times the estimated EV/EBITDA for 2026, which is 40% above its five-year average. Concurrently, on November 19, ArcelorMittal confirmed its presence in India through its joint venture ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India Limited (AM/NS India), owned 60% by the group and 40% by its Japanese partner. This announcement comes as the group continues its expansion strategy in growing markets, with India representing a strategic outlet in the face of challenges in the European market. On November 14, BNP Paribas Exane had, on the other hand, raised its price target on the stock, demonstrating divergent views among analysts.

Financial Projections and Market Volatility

UBS forecasts a 3% decline in the group's EBITDA in 2025, followed by an increase of 3% in 2026 and 9% in 2027, with the free cash flow yield expected to reach only 4.6% in 2027. The bank has reduced its estimates for 2025 by 24% for the North American region and highlights the absence of indications on tariff relief, particularly following the cessation of trade negotiations between the United States and Canada. The monthly volatility of the stock is established at 5.44, a moderate level reflecting relative stabilization after recent upward movements. The technical support threshold remains solidly anchored at 32.32 euros, providing a safety cushion against potential declines. The divergence in analyst recommendations illustrates the uncertainties surrounding the evolution of the steel sector, torn between encouraging prospects in Europe due to trade protection measures and persistent pressures on margins in other key regions.