At the forefront of the CAC 40, Société Générale stock rebounds after -12% in one month
The Défense bank is regaining ground mid-session, within a nearly stable CAC 40. This recovery comes after several weeks of decline, as French debt remains at the heart of budget debates in the National Assembly.
A rebound that leaves the stock far from its moving averages
Société Générale stock gains 1.42% to €65.08, placing it among the strongest rises in the CAC 40. The stock remains below its 20-day MA (€68.60, a gap of 5.1%) and below its 200-day MA (€71.21), following a decline of 11.9% over one month. The support at €62.50 remains the closest reference point, with resistance at €75.07. The stock has been trading ex-dividend since October 5, following the detachment of a dividend of €0.75: the performances mentioned take this into account, and this detachment in no way explains today's session.
A context of tight French rates and a KBW opinion issued today
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The Paris market is evolving under tension from French debt: the 10-year OAT yield was 4.86% on October 12, or 1.40 percentage points above the Bund, while the 2027 budget has been debated in the National Assembly since Tuesday. KBW has also published its opinion on the bank: "market perform" with a price target of €75, representing a potential upside of 15% from the current price. At the time of the H1 2026 publication (July 30), the bank had raised its 2026 ROTE target to approximately 11%. Next technical reference point: support at €62.50.
« Revenus du Groupe de 21,4 Md EUR sur 9M-26, en hausse de +4,1% vs. 9M-25, en bonne voie pour dépasser la cible 2026 >+2% » ; « ROTE de 12,3% sur 9M-26, en bonne voie pour dépasser la cible 2026 à ~11% » ; « Coût du risque de 27 pb sur 9M-26, dans la fourchette cible de 25 à 30 pb pour 2026 »
Risks mentioned
Perspectives négatives de Moody's sur la notation long terme (dette senior préférée) « A1 »
Baisse du résultat des ventes de voitures d'occasion (-12,2% revenus Ayvens vs T3-25)
Baisse des revenus Taux Crédit et Change (-20,6% vs T3-25) sous l'effet d'une baisse d'activité sur les taux
Opportunities identified
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Forte dynamique des Actions +45,9% au T3-26 atteignant un record de plus de 1,2 Md€
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The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
