Ayvens stock among the steepest declines on the SBF 120, down 17.5% in one month

A 4% decline that widens the gap from moving averages against a market under pressure

Ayvens drops 4.11% in the session, to €9.11, in an SBF 120 that also declines by 1.38%. The pressure is not new: over one week, the stock has lost 10.42%, and 20.09% over one month. The stock is trading well below its three moving averages. The 20-day MA is at €10.37, representing a gap of over 12% above the current price; the 50-day and 200-day MAs are both close to €10.87, approximately 16% above.

The RSI at 23 signals a marked oversold configuration, without indicating an imminent reversal. This downward dynamic is taking place in the context of a difficult session for the Paris market: the 10-year OAT yield reached 4.86%, a level unseen for more than a decade, while the spread with the German Bund exceeds 1.30 percentage points, its highest since 2012. Uncertainty surrounding the 2027 budget, submitted Thursday to the Cabinet, weighs on the entire market.

Short positions rising and share buyback program partially deployed in the background

According to filed declarations, a fund holds a net short position of 1.11% of capital, up 1.11 points over thirty days. This rapid increase in the bearish bet, even at a still moderate level, illustrates growing pressure on the stock since mid-September. It does not shed light on the fund's precise motivations (hedging, fundamental view, arbitrage), but warrants monitoring in the context of prolonged decline. On the share buyback program announced in late July for €450 million, approximately 23% had been executed as of September 25, representing €105 million.

This potential support for the price remains partial. During the presentation of its roadmap to 2029, Ayvens raised its profitability targets, aiming for a return on tangible equity of 14% to 16% versus 13% to 15% previously, but the stock then fell by more than 5%. The previous support level at €9.50 has now been breached to the downside, and according to the analyst consensus, the stock is trading at approximately 7.2 times expected earnings for the current fiscal year.