BNP PARIBAS ACT.A Shares Fall 3.54% at Close, Hurt by Disappointing Quarterly Results
The stock of the French banking giant ended the session on Tuesday, October 28, with a sharp decline, significantly outpacing the general downturn of the CAC 40 index. This correction reflects the lukewarm reception given to the third-quarter results, released during the session, where the group disappointed on its main financial aggregates despite positive short-term technical signals.
Daily Trading Overview
BNP PARIBAS ACT.A ended the day at 66.74 euros, down 3.54% from Monday's close of 69.19 euros. This decline accelerates the trend of weakness over the past seven days, with the stock showing a negative weekly performance of 3.42%. Trading volume remained limited with only 0.53% of the bank's capital traded, suggesting cautious rotation among positions. By comparison, the CAC 40 ended slightly down by 0.27%, highlighting the specific underperformance of the stock against the benchmark index. On an annual basis, however, the stock still maintains a gain of 2.16%, a performance itself disappointing compared to the 9.59% increase of the CAC 40 over the same period. The three-month decline stands at 15.38%, revealing a gradual deterioration of the stock since the summer.
Quarterly Results Impact
The release of the third-quarter results largely explains the end-of-session correction. The bank posted a net profit of 3.04 billion euros, up 6.1% year-on-year, but fell short of the consensus expectations by 1%. Quarterly revenues were at 12.569 billion euros, up 5.3% year-on-year, yet still below the anticipated 12.8 billion euros by analysts. Operating income increased by 4.9% to 4.96 billion euros, which is 3% less than expected. However, a positive note was the CET 1 capital ratio, which remained stable at 12.5% in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter, despite absorbing a negative impact of 35 basis points due to the financing of the acquisition of the asset management subsidiary Axa IM. This acquisition is expected to generate cost and revenue synergies of 550 million euros before taxes by 2029, at an integration cost estimated at 690 million euros. The bank had already warned about the 'mixed' nature of this quarter, which was not enough to rally investors who feared a stronger performance capable of re-energizing the stock.
Technical Analysis
From a technical standpoint, the stock emits mixed signals. The overbought/oversold RSI indicator stands at 32, indicating an oversold condition that may attract buyers in the very short term. The stochastic shows a buy signal, while the MACD line remains in negative territory with a value of -2.37 and a divergence of about -0.70 from its signal line, reflecting persistent bearish momentum. The structure of moving averages shows the stock now trading below its 50-day moving average (79.14 euros) and its 200-day moving average (75.27 euros), confirming the bearish trend. In terms of critical levels, the nearest support is at 67.93 euros while resistance is at 79.60 euros. Bollinger Bands enclose the stock with an upper level at 81.37 and a lower level at 66.65 euros, the latter threshold approaching current levels. The monthly volatility displayed at 10.24% suggests more pronounced price swings in the upcoming sessions.
