Crédit Agricole Shares Drop Over 3% and Reapproach Their 200-Day Moving Average
Crédit Agricole's stock significantly declines during the session, as the CAC 40 also falls amidst a resurgence of geopolitical tensions. This movement comes days after the announcement of an increased stake in Banco BPM, at a time when volatility is sharply rising on European markets.
A Significant Decline Bringing the Stock Back to Its Long-Term Moving Averages
Crédit Agricole's stock drops 3.13% to €17.05, within a CAC 40 that declines by 2.25% and an SBF 120 down by 2.16%. The VIX jumps nearly 20% to 18.64, indicating a clear increase in risk aversion, as tensions flare up again between Washington and Tehran with mutual strikes claimed in the Gulf. The banking sector leads today's sell-offs, with Société Générale falling 5.7%, the largest drop in the CAC 40. Chart-wise, the stock has fallen below its 20-day moving average (€17.39) by nearly 2%, while precisely reaching its 50 and 200-day averages, nearly identical at €17.05 and €17.04.
This tight crossing of long-term references makes the €17 zone an immediate technical benchmark, with the next identified support at €16.25. The RSI at 56 remains in the neutral zone, indicating that today's decline has not yet shifted the configuration into a selling zone. The consensus among analysts remains positive: CIC Market Solutions confirmed on July 6 their buy rating with a target of €22, representing a potential of about 29% on the current price. According to the consensus of surveyed analysts, the stock is priced at about 7.6 times the earnings expected this year and 7 times those of the next fiscal year.
Strengthening in Banco BPM Against the Backdrop of a Turbulent Banking Sector
On the corporate front, early July saw the green bank cross a key threshold in its Italian campaign. The group notified Italian authorities that it now holds 29.3% of Banco BPM's capital, after crossing the regulatory threshold of 25%. The increase was achieved through stock market purchases and via a derivative instrument, with the stated goal of deepening industrial partnerships in consumer credit, insurance, and welfare.
This stake, now close to the mandatory takeover bid threshold set at 30% under Italian law, extends a busy period for the group: the acquisition of 100% of CAWL from Worldline finalized on July 1, followed by a strategic agreement at the end of June with the Spanish group BCC-Grupo Cajamar, including a 9.9% stake in its parent company. Furthermore, the context of interest rates remains favorable for the French retail bank, with an average effective rate of long-term mortgage loans at 3.97% in July and a 2.8% year-on-year increase in corporate loan balances as of the end of May. The €17 threshold and the 200-day moving average at €17.04 are the next technical benchmarks to watch if the decline continues.
