Edenred Stock: Technical Rebound Before Annual Results Announcement
Edenred's stock is up nearly 2% this Tuesday morning, crossing back above the 17.90 euro threshold after several weeks of decline. This upward movement comes a week before the announcement of the 2025 annual results scheduled for February 24. However, the stock remains sharply down over the year, showing an underperformance of more than 46%.
This Tuesday, Edenred is trading at 17.97 euros, up 1.93% from the previous day. The stock is now above its 20-day moving average, which is at 17.72 euros, potentially signaling a short-term reversal. However, the 50-day moving average, set at 18.18 euros, poses an immediate barrier: the price remains below this level, indicating a still downward-oriented long-term trend.
The RSI, an indicator measuring the momentum of the stock in recent sessions, is at 52, which is in the neutral zone. This means that the stock is neither in an overbought nor oversold condition, leaving room for a directional movement in the coming days. Over three months, the decline reaches 7.2%, while the nearest resistance is at 19.05 euros, a level that the stock must surpass to confirm a more sustained recovery.
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The company, specialized in professional payment solutions, will publish its 2025 annual results on February 24, exactly one week from now. This deadline is a crucial moment for the stock, whose market capitalization has nearly halved in a year. The disclosed figures will assess Edenred's ability to maintain its growth trajectory in a changing regulatory environment, particularly in Italy and France, the group's historical markets.
Beyond this publication, the financial calendar includes the announcement of the first quarter revenue on April 23, followed by the general assembly on May 7. These milestones will mark the first half of the year and provide additional elements to assess the operational trajectory of the group. The monthly volatility, measured at 14.90%, indicates moderate fluctuations, which could change as the account publication date approaches.
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Context
Period
Period: 3T 2025
Guidance from the release
Edenred confirme la solidité de son modèle économique et réaffirme ses objectifs 2025, visant au moins 10 % de croissance organique de l’EBITDA et un taux de conversion Free-cash-flow/EBITDA supérieur à 70 %.
Croissance organique accélérée au T3 2025 (+8,2 % chiffre d’affaires opérationnel) portée par toutes les lignes de métier, forte dynamique en Amérique latine et amélioration en Europe; Mobilité en croissance à deux chiffres; Solutions complémentaires en repli. Effets de change négatifs et impact réglementaire en Italie (plafonnement commissions) anticipés.
Risks mentioned
Impact négatif attendu de 60 millions d’euros d’EBITDA lié au plafonnement des commissions marchands en Italie
Effets de change défavorables (dépréciation des devises en Amérique latine, notamment réal brésilien et peso mexicain)
Environnement macroéconomique incertain pouvant affecter la consommation et la demande
Opportunities identified
Hausses des valeurs faciales des titres-restaurant dans plusieurs pays (ex. Belgique +25% à partir du 1er janvier 2026) soutenant la croissance organique
Partenariats stratégiques (Visa, Esso, grand distributeur de carburant) renforçant l’offre et l’accès au marché
Déploiement des solutions Beyond Food et Beyond Fuel et conquête du segment PME encore sous-pénétré
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