LVMH Stock Falls More Than 16% Over Three Months, Below Its Moving Averages
The luxury giant's share is trading virtually unchanged on this Wednesday morning of September 23rd, within a CAC 40 index that is also balanced. This apparent calm contrasts with a clearly bearish underlying momentum, which two analyst revisions published the previous day have illustrated once again.
Below Its Three Moving Averages, the Share Remains Anchored in an Unfavorable Underlying Trend
LVMH is trading at €402.20 in the session, representing a gain of 0.06% compared to Tuesday's close, with support coinciding with the previous day's price of €401.95. The near-flat performance today masks the extent of the accumulated decline: the share has dropped more than 11% over one month and nearly 16.5% over three months. It remains firmly below its three moving averages, trading 5.64% below the 20-day MA (€426.23), 11.30% below the 50-day MA (€453.44) and more than 20% below the 200-day MA (€504.42).
The MACD remains in negative territory, with a histogram at -0.82, and the RSI at 33 reflects persistent selling pressure without reaching extreme oversold thresholds. The nearest resistance level stands at €478.80, representing an increase of nearly 19% above the current price. In this context, sector data indicates a contraction of Swiss watch exports to China of 18.5% year-over-year in August 2026, illustrating the fragility of demand in this key market for global luxury.
Two Analyst Revisions Lower Targets While Diverging on Opinion
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Two brokerage firms revised their opinions on LVMH on September 22nd. RBC Capital downgraded its rating from "outperform" to "sector perform", setting a price target of €475.00, representing an upside potential of approximately 18% compared to the current price. Jefferies, meanwhile, maintained its "hold" rating while significantly lowering its target, from €510.00 to €440.00, which represents limited upside potential of nearly 9% from current levels.
These two revisions are part of a series of downward recalibrations on the stock in recent weeks, several of which had already weighed on the share last week. When publishing H1 2026 results on July 27th, LVMH had highlighted accelerating growth in the second quarter and the successes of Tiffany and Bulgari, while flagging a negative currency effect of 5% on sales. The next key level for the share remains the support at €401.95, a level that coincides with the previous day's closing price and whose holding is critical for short-term stabilization.
LVMH will draw on its powerful brands and the talent of its teams to reinforce its global leadership position in luxury goods once again in 2026
Risks mentioned
Uncertain geopolitical and economic environment affecting global business activity
Slowdown in demand in China impacting Fashion & Leather Goods segment
Market sensitivity to exchange rate fluctuations (negative 3% impact in 9M 2026)
Opportunities identified
Continued growth in Watches & Jewelry with 8% organic growth driven by strong jewelry performance
Strong performance of Sephora in Selective Retailing with market share gains and network expansion
Recovery in Wines & Spirits champagne business and good momentum in Asia for Hennessy cognac
Outlook / guidance
Management commentary: LVMH will draw on its powerful brands and the talent of its teams to reinforce its global leadership position in luxury goods once again in 2026. Despite an economic and geopolitical environment that remains uncertain, the Group remains confident and will maintain a strategy focused on continuously enhancing the desirability of its brands.
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
