Nexity shares closed on Friday at €9.715, down by 9.96% over the week. This decline contrasts with the performance of benchmark indices: the SBF 120 fell by 1.75% and the CAC 40 lost 1.72% during the same period. The stock is now trading below its 50-day moving average of €10.14, indicating short-term selling pressure. Trading volumes remained high at the beginning of the week, with nearly 600,000 shares traded on Monday, before stabilizing around 150,000 to 170,000 shares on subsequent days. Over the year, the stock's performance remains negative at -23.98%, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the real estate development sector. This downward trend is part of a weakened technical context. The beta of -0.16 suggests that the stock moves independently from the market, providing some protection when indices fall, but also limiting its rebound potential during bullish phases. The monthly volatility, measured at 14.86%, remains relatively high for a stock in the real estate sector, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding the stock. The price is now approaching the technical support level identified at €8.20, which could act as a floor if the downward movement continues.
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Graphically, several momentum indicators signal a weakening of the dynamic. The MACD, with a signal line at -0.01 and a histogram at -0.13, confirms the ongoing bearish trend, although the gap remains moderate. The Chaikin Money Flow, negative at -0.15, indicates capital outflows in recent sessions, suggesting that selling flows currently dominate. The On-Balance Volume (OBV), which measures buying or selling pressure based on volumes, stands at 732,261, a level that shows limited accumulation over the past few weeks. The stock's position relative to its long-term moving averages also remains unfavorable. The price is now trading below its 200-day moving average of €10.38, confirming the weakness of the underlying trend. The 50 and 200-day moving averages continue to converge, with a gap that has narrowed to about €0.24, which could indicate a prolonged consolidation phase. The Bollinger Bands, which frame recent fluctuations between €9.38 and €11.47, show that the price is approaching the lower bound, suggesting compressed volatility that could precede a more significant movement in one direction or another.
SectorImmobilier / construction · Promotion immobilière / logement›Construction résidentielle
Context
Period
Period: 9M2025
Guidance from the release
L’activité commerciale de Nexity continue de s’améliorer au 3ème trimestre ... renouer avec une croissance rentable dès 2025.
Fin du dispositif Pinel entraînant une forte baisse des investisseurs particuliers (-45 %) ; accédants en forte progression (+26 % pour Nexity sur 9M) soutenus par l’extension du PTZ et des taux stabilisés autour de 3,1 % ; marché tertiaire en bas de cycle avec livraisons 2024 impactant le CA tertiaire 2025 ; backlog à 3,9 Md€ (?1,5 année d’activité).
Risks mentioned
Dégradation de l’environnement macro-économique (guidance conditionnelle)
Risque lié aux municipales ralentissant l’instruction des permis de construire
Baisse du marché de détail liée à la fin du Pinel (-45 % investisseurs particuliers)
Segment tertiaire en bas de cycle et absence de rechargement du backlog tertiaire
Opportunities identified
Extension du PTZ favorisant la demande des accédants et des terrains à bâtir (+41 %)
Croissance des activités d’exploitation (résidences étudiantes, coworking) avec taux d’occupation élevés
Partenariat Carrefour avec potentiel CA à terminaison estimé à plus de 2 Md€
Recalibrage de l’offre commerciale et développement sélectif améliorant les délais d’écoulement (5 mois)
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.