Renault Shares Bounce Midday Despite Morgan Stanley Downgrade
Renault's stock progresses by 2.55% at mid-session this Wednesday, February 4, 2026, reaching 31.32 euros. This rebound occurs in a challenging context for the manufacturer, facing downward revisions by analysts and a negative overall trend, with a decline of 36.57% over the year. However, recent commercial performances in France provide support to the case.
Morgan Stanley's Significant Adjustment on Renault
The American bank Morgan Stanley has made a significant adjustment to its position on the diamond-shaped logo manufacturer. The financial institution downgraded its recommendation from 'market-weight' to 'underweight' on February 3, while lowering its price target from 47 euros to 33 euros. This new target price now implies a potential upside of only 5.4% compared to the current stock level. A few days earlier, Alphavalue had also lowered its target, moving from 52.90 euros to 44.80 euros on January 27, representing a valuation perspective of 43% above Tuesday's closing price. These successive revisions reflect increased caution by analysts in the face of persistent difficulties in the automotive sector and specific challenges the group must address. The stock is now significantly below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, located at 34.40 euros and 37.02 euros respectively, confirming the selling pressure that has been exerted on the value for several months.
Strong Commercial Figures for Renault in France
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The French manufacturer unveiled solid commercial figures for January 2026 in its domestic market, with 19,322 vehicles sold, an increase of 20.7%. This performance contrasts with the 6.5% decline recorded by the overall French market, allowing the group to increase its market share to a record level of 21.2%. The Clio and R5 E-Tech electric models are among the main contributors to this positive dynamic. Technically, the stock benefits today from a renewed interest after testing its support at 30.54 euros on Tuesday. The RSI indicator, positioned at 30, indicated an oversold situation likely to trigger a corrective movement. The high monthly volatility, measured at 7.65, continues to illustrate the nervousness of investors around the value. The next resistance is at 36.36 euros, a level that will be a major test to confirm a possible stabilization of the price. The annual results are expected to be published on February 19.
"Nos résultats 2025, dans un contexte de marché difficile, démontrent l’engagement de nos équipes pour délivrer une performance régulière de premier plan parmi les acteurs de l’industrie automobile."
Résultats 2025: chiffre d’affaires Groupe de 57 922 millions d’euros (+3,0 % YoY; +4,5 % à taux de change constants); chiffre d’affaires Automobile de 51 442 millions d’euros (+1,8 %); marge opérationnelle Groupe de 6,3 %; résultat net part du Groupe de -10 931 millions d’euros; résultat net du Groupe hors Nissan de 715 millions d’euros; free cash-flow Automobile de 1 473 millions d’euros; position financière nette Automobile de 7 370 millions d’euros; dividende proposé de 2,20 euros par action; perspectives 2026: marge opérationnelle du Groupe entre 5 % et 7 %, free cash-flow de l’Automobile d’environ 1,0 milliard d’euros et dividendes Mobilize Financial Services d’environ 350 millions d’euros; perspectives à moyen terme axées sur une croissance soutenue et la réduction des coûts.
Outlook / guidance
Management commentary: Renault Group vise une marge opérationnelle du Groupe entre 5 % et 7 % du chiffre d’affaires sur le moyen terme et un free cash-flow de l’Automobile d’environ 1,0 milliard d’euros par an en moyenne sur le moyen terme, incluant environ 350 millions d’euros de dividendes reçus de Mobilize Financial Services à partir de 2026.
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