Renault Shares Drop 3.6% Despite a 7.3% Increase in Q1 Revenue
Renault's stock fell 3.6% to €29.76 this Friday, following the announcement of a quarterly revenue increase. The decline is part of an unfavorable weekly trend, with a drop of over 5% in seven days, amid a market downturn driven by soaring oil prices.
Yesterday, the diamond-shaped logo group reported a first-quarter revenue of €12.53 billion, up 7.3% in reported figures and 8.8% at constant exchange rates. The commercial momentum is driven by a double-digit growth in orders, while Alpine soared by 54.7%. However, Dacia experienced a decline of 16.3%, attributed to exceptional logistical factors, which could temper the enthusiasm related to the overall trajectory of the group. Moreover, this Friday's session takes place in a tense macroeconomic environment. Brent crude has crossed the $106 per barrel mark, up 12% in five days, due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. For an automaker like Renault, the sustained increase in energy prices directly affects industrial costs and the purchasing power of households, its main customers. The CAC 40, during the session, is down 1.05% at 8,141 points, illustrating the general pressure on the Parisian market.
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Technically, the stock is trading at €29.76, below its 50-day moving average of €30.26 and well under its 200-day moving average of €33.27. This gap indicates a fundamental bearish trend, confirmed by an annual performance of -33.79%. The price is also in the lower part of the Bollinger Bands, at 38% of the range between the lower bound (€27.70) and the upper bound (€33.06), signaling a fragile positioning without yet reaching the oversold zone. The next important date for shareholders is set for April 30, the date of the general assembly. Until then, the support threshold identified at €27.32 is a level to watch in case the correction continues, while the technical resistance is at €32.52. Monthly volatility remains high, at 10.25, reflecting the magnitude of recent movements in the stock. With a beta of 0.02, Renault theoretically shows a low correlation with the variations of the reference index, but this does not prevent the stock from being affected by factors specific to the automotive sector and the current geopolitical context.
"Nos résultats 2025, dans un contexte de marché difficile, démontrent l’engagement de nos équipes pour délivrer une performance régulière de premier plan parmi les acteurs de l’industrie automobile."
Résultats 2025: chiffre d’affaires Groupe de 57 922 millions d’euros (+3,0 % YoY; +4,5 % à taux de change constants); chiffre d’affaires Automobile de 51 442 millions d’euros (+1,8 %); marge opérationnelle Groupe de 6,3 %; résultat net part du Groupe de -10 931 millions d’euros; résultat net du Groupe hors Nissan de 715 millions d’euros; free cash-flow Automobile de 1 473 millions d’euros; position financière nette Automobile de 7 370 millions d’euros; dividende proposé de 2,20 euros par action; perspectives 2026: marge opérationnelle du Groupe entre 5 % et 7 %, free cash-flow de l’Automobile d’environ 1,0 milliard d’euros et dividendes Mobilize Financial Services d’environ 350 millions d’euros; perspectives à moyen terme axées sur une croissance soutenue et la réduction des coûts.
Outlook / guidance
Management commentary: Renault Group vise une marge opérationnelle du Groupe entre 5 % et 7 % du chiffre d’affaires sur le moyen terme et un free cash-flow de l’Automobile d’environ 1,0 milliard d’euros par an en moyenne sur le moyen terme, incluant environ 350 millions d’euros de dividendes reçus de Mobilize Financial Services à partir de 2026.
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