Renault Shares Experience a Slight Technical Rebound at Close
On Wednesday, January 28, 2026, Renault shares closed up 0.7% at 31.87 euros. This rebound occurs as the automaker shows a 35% decline over the year and analysts continue to adjust their forecasts.
Renault's case has seen new revisions from analysts. Alphavalue lowered its price target from 52.90 euros to 44.80 euros on January 27, marking an adjustment of nearly 15%. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank reduced its target from 44 euros to 42 euros on January 21, while maintaining a 'hold' rating on the stock. These new estimates suggest limited upside potential from current levels, with expert expectations remaining cautious due to challenges in the automotive sector. The proposed valuation reflects some skepticism about the group's trajectory, despite the upcoming annual results presentation on February 19.
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From a technical standpoint, the automaker is trading well below its 20-day moving average, which is positioned at 33.46 euros, about 5% above the current price. This situation indicates persistent bearish pressure on the stock over the past several weeks. The 14-day RSI stands at 27, placing the stock in an oversold zone, a level generally considered as a signal of exhaustion in the bearish trend. However, this indicator alone is not sufficient to confirm a lasting reversal, especially as the monthly volatility remains high at 7.63, indicating significant nervousness among market participants. Investors will remain alert to upcoming financial releases to assess the robustness of the company's business model.
"Nos résultats 2025, dans un contexte de marché difficile, démontrent l’engagement de nos équipes pour délivrer une performance régulière de premier plan parmi les acteurs de l’industrie automobile."
Résultats 2025: chiffre d’affaires Groupe de 57 922 millions d’euros (+3,0 % YoY; +4,5 % à taux de change constants); chiffre d’affaires Automobile de 51 442 millions d’euros (+1,8 %); marge opérationnelle Groupe de 6,3 %; résultat net part du Groupe de -10 931 millions d’euros; résultat net du Groupe hors Nissan de 715 millions d’euros; free cash-flow Automobile de 1 473 millions d’euros; position financière nette Automobile de 7 370 millions d’euros; dividende proposé de 2,20 euros par action; perspectives 2026: marge opérationnelle du Groupe entre 5 % et 7 %, free cash-flow de l’Automobile d’environ 1,0 milliard d’euros et dividendes Mobilize Financial Services d’environ 350 millions d’euros; perspectives à moyen terme axées sur une croissance soutenue et la réduction des coûts.
Outlook / guidance
Management commentary: Renault Group vise une marge opérationnelle du Groupe entre 5 % et 7 % du chiffre d’affaires sur le moyen terme et un free cash-flow de l’Automobile d’environ 1,0 milliard d’euros par an en moyenne sur le moyen terme, incluant environ 350 millions d’euros de dividendes reçus de Mobilize Financial Services à partir de 2026.
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