Safran Stock Falls Below its 200-Day Moving Average, a Closely Watched Signal
On Tuesday, April 7, Safran's stock price fell by 1.29%, trading around €283.60 as the market approached closing, down from a previous close of €287.30. The aerospace and defense group is moving in the wake of a CAC 40, which is down 0.48% during the session amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Safran's decline this Tuesday is part of an unfavorable sector-wide movement. Airbus is down 1.91% during the session, while Schneider Electric drops 1.36%, demonstrating widespread selling pressure on industrial and technology stocks. The CAC 40, at 7,924.16 points, is also in negative territory. Over three months, Safran's stock has declined by 9.31%, although its annual performance remains strong at +29.91%. The coming weeks will be crucial fundamentally: the group will publish its first-quarter results on April 23, followed by the annual general meeting scheduled for May 21. These events could provide new catalysts for the stock, as visibility on production rates and order intakes remains a central concern.
Technical Analysis Indicates a Mid-Term Downtrend
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From a technical analysis perspective, Safran's stock price is significantly below its 50-day (€311.49) and 200-day (€297.76) moving averages, confirming a mid-term bearish trend. This gap of nearly €28 from the MM50 indicates a significant departure from the recent momentum of the stock. The RSI, at 42, is in the lower neutral zone without crossing the oversold threshold of 30, indicating moderate but persistent selling pressure. Within the Bollinger Bands, the price is positioned in the lower part of the band, at 29% of the interval between the lower bound (€266.33) and the upper bound (€326.53). The nearest technical support is at €274.40, a level that, if further deteriorated, could become a focal point for traders.
"2025 a été une année remarquable pour nos activités, portées par un trafic passagers record et une dynamique soutenue dans la défense."
Safran publie des résultats annuels 2025 solides: chiffre d'affaires consolidé de 31,189 milliards d'euros (+12,5 % YoY), résultat opérationnel courant consolidé de 4,787 milliards d'euros (+14,4 %), EBITDA de 6,318 milliards d'euros, cash-flow libre de 3,921 milliards d'euros; perspectives 2026: CA attendu en hausse de 12-15 %, COI entre 6,1 et 6,2 milliards d'euros et FCF entre 4,4 et 4,6 milliards d'euros, ambi tions 2028 relevées.
Risks mentioned
Capacités de production de la chaîne d’approvisionnement
Opportunities identified
Croissance soutenue des activités d’après-vente et défense
Livraisons et contenu des services liés au LEAP et à l’aéronautique civile
Dynamique du trafic aérien favorable et extension des commandes dans la défense
Outlook / guidance
Expected revenue: Le chiffre d'affaires 2026 est attendu entre 12 % et 15 % de hausse par rapport à l'année 2025.
Expected EBITDA: EBITDA 2026 attendu entre 6,1 et 6,2 milliards d'euros.
Management commentary: Pour 2026, Safran prévoit une croissance du chiffre d'affaires entre 12 % et 15 %, un résultat opérationnel courant entre 6,1 et 6,2 milliards d'euros et un flux de trésorerie libre entre 4,4 et 4,6 milliards d'euros, sous réserve de l'exécution des livraisons et du calendrier de paiement des États clients.
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