Shell Anticipates Decline in Adjusted Results for Q4 2025
The oil and gas company Shell has released an update note for the fourth quarter of 2025, detailing its current expectations ahead of the final results announcement scheduled for February 5, 2026, according to the statement.
The Integrated Gas division of the group reported a liquefied natural gas production ranging between 6.8 and 7.2 million tonnes for the quarter, according to the data provided. The indicative refining margins are set between 4 and 5 dollars per barrel, while the natural gas and LNG trading margins are expected to be negative, ranging from minus 100 to minus 200 million dollars. The segment also records depreciation charges estimated between 1.7 and 2.1 billion dollars for the period. The company clarifies that these forecasts exclude identified items, which will be detailed in the full results release.
Upstream Production Estimates
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The group's upstream production is expected to reach between 1,730 and 1,810 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day in the fourth quarter, Shell indicates. This performance, however, includes depreciation charges ranging from 4.6 to 5.0 billion dollars. The group also reports post-tax asset impairments estimated between 1.5 and 2.5 billion dollars, mainly related to its activities in the North Sea and the divestment of Nigerian assets. The underlying operational costs are estimated between 3.3 and 3.7 billion dollars for the quarter, reflecting the management costs of this division.
Marketing Division and Other Segments
In the Marketing division, the volumes of petroleum products are expected to be between 3,300 and 3,700 thousand barrels per day, while the indicative refining margins are anticipated between 6 and 7 dollars per barrel, the company specifies. The Chemicals segment expects margins ranging from 200 to 300 dollars per ton. Shell also indicates that adjustments to the current replacement cost are expected to negatively impact the adjusted results by 200 to 400 million dollars after taxes. The Renewables and Energy Solutions division, meanwhile, records anticipated adjusted results ranging from minus 200 to zero million dollars, reflecting ongoing investments in renewable energies.
« Our cash capital expenditure for the full year 2026 is expected to be $23-$25 billion. »
Risks mentioned
Middle East conflict impact on Qatari volumes, reducing total oil and gas production by 17% year-on-year for nine months
European biogas asset impairment of $2,098 million (identified items in nine months 2026) reflecting revised market expectations
Identified items totalling $1,201 million net loss for nine months 2026, including impairments and fair value movements on derivatives
Opportunities identified
ARC Resources acquisition adds approximately 370 kboe/d immediately upon completion on September 2, 2026
LNG Canada Phase 2 investment decision taken with expected commercial operations in early 2030s, expanding capacity to 28 mtpa
Multiple strategic divestments generating proceeds ($3.5 billion in nine months 2026) to support capital discipline and debt management
Outlook / guidance
Management commentary: Our cash capital expenditure for the full year 2026 is expected to be $23-$25 billion
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