Thales Shares Jump 3.7% at Opening in a Technical Move

Thales shares opened up 3.7% this Monday, January 5, at 243.70 euros compared to 235 euros at the close last Friday. This increase occurred in moderate trading volumes with only 0.03% of the capital traded, reflecting still limited activity at the start of the year. The movement continues a positive weekly dynamic, with the stock having gained 6.61% over the past seven days. Technically, this recovery allows the price to surpass the 50-day moving average set at 235.24 euros, an encouraging sign after several weeks of consolidation. The RSI indicator has risen to 64, indicating a resurgence of buyer interest without yet reaching the overbought zone above 70. Meanwhile, the MACD shows a constructive setup with a positive histogram at 0.81, suggesting a reversal of the bearish momentum observed in the last quarter. The stock remains positioned above its major support at 219.50 euros while breaking through the resistance at 235.80 euros identified at the end of the year. This configuration paves the way for a continuation of the technical rebound that began after the December low, although the proximity of the 200-day moving average at 243.93 euros poses a short-term hurdle to monitor.

Despite a decline of 10.07% over the last three months, Thales maintains an impressive annual performance with a rise of 78.27%, confirming its status as a favored defensive stock in a tense geopolitical context. This quarterly correction is partly explained by uncertainties surrounding the evolution of the Ukrainian conflict and peace talks conducted at the end of December, which weighed on the entire European defense sector. Nevertheless, the group has strong structural assets, including a record order book and increased visibility on its future revenues. In the first nine months of 2025, the group generated a revenue of 15.256 billion euros, up 8.4% organically compared to the same period last year. The 2025 targets were confirmed during the third-quarter release in October, with expected organic growth between 6 and 7% and an adjusted EBIT margin between 12.2 and 12.4%. Morgan Stanley maintains its equal-weight recommendation with a price target set at 260 euros, representing a theoretical appreciation potential of nearly 7% compared to this Monday's opening level.

The rebound observed this Monday comes after several weeks of consolidation that had brought the stock below its main moving averages. The Chaikin Money Flow indicator shows a positive reading at 0.15, indicating an improvement in buying flows over the recent period. This data, coupled with a negative on-balance volume at minus 737,387, suggests that the technical recovery remains to be confirmed by a more marked increase in trading volumes. The one-month volatility stands at 5.35, a moderate level that reflects some stability in the stock despite the fluctuations observed at the end of the year. The business environment for the group remains supportive with several major contracts signed recently, including the awarding of a British contract for the Royal Navy in late December with an initial amount of 10 million pounds sterling that could reach 100 million. The dynamic of order intake remains strong, particularly in defense and aerospace sectors, which benefit from increased European military budgets. The anticipated volatility of the stock and its low beta of 0.11 make it a favored defensive value for investors in periods of macroeconomic uncertainty, while the technical improvement observed since the beginning of the year could herald a lasting recovery if confirmed in the upcoming sessions.