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Last updated : 15/09/2026 - 16h49
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Thales Shares Lagging in CAC 40 Amid Geopolitical Easing

In mid-morning trading, the defense electronics group is trailing at the bottom of the CAC 40, even as the Paris index moves into positive territory. The stock continues a downward trend that began in early June, dipping below a closely watched technical threshold. The geopolitical relaxation in the Middle East continues to erode the premium given to defense stocks.


Thales Shares Lagging in CAC 40 Amid Geopolitical Easing

The Stock Dips Below Its Support at €219.40 Before Rebounding

Thales shares are down 2.57% at €219.50 in mid-morning trading, ranking as the worst performer in the CAC 40 while the index itself is up 0.33%. The stock briefly dipped below its support level at €219.40, reaching a low of €218.50, before rebounding to the threshold. This movement extends the decline that has been ongoing for several sessions, already noted during the 2.5% drop the previous day. Over the week, the stock has lost nearly 5%, bringing its quarterly performance to -8.66%. The price is now below its three moving averages: the MM20 at €231.73 (a gap of -5.28%), the MM50 at €234.86, and the MM200 at €244.94, indicating a lag of more than 10% to catch up. The RSI at 43 remains neutral, which does not rule out a continued movement towards the €218 zone.

Easing on Brent and the Decline in Geopolitical Premiums Weigh on Defense

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The market context has turned unfavorable for the defense sector. Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have returned to their pre-conflict levels according to Washington, with Brent crude falling to around $72.5 per barrel, its lowest since the end of February. This geopolitical easing mechanically erodes the risk premium that had supported defense stocks in recent months. The movement comes as Thales had already absorbed its latest industrial announcements, including the French order of the multi-layer SAMP/T NG developed with MBDA in early June, and the presentation at Eurosatory of a military vehicle co-developed with Renault. The next technical threshold to watch remains the €218.50 zone, the session's low; in the event of a rebound, the MM20 at €231.73 acts as a nearby ceiling.



Sector Aéronautique et Défense Défense


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Context

Period
  • Period: S1 2026
Key reported figures
  • Revenue: 10 949 millions d'euros
  • Quarterly revenue: 10 949 millions d'euros
  • Revenue growth: 6,7 %
  • EBITDA: 1 150 millions d'euros
  • Net income: 485 millions d'euros
  • Free cash flow: 1 865 millions d'euros
  • 519,2 millions d'euros
Risks mentioned
  • Résiliation du programme F126 par l'Allemagne : charge exceptionnelle de 450 M€, impact de 331 M€ sur le résultat net
  • Annulation d'une commande de deux satellites géostationnaires, impact d'environ -150 M€ sur les ventes Spatial
  • Marge Cyber & Digital en baisse à 10,9 % contre 14,4 %, notamment dans les Paiements et l'Identité/Biométrie
Opportunities identified
  • 18 grandes commandes de plus de 100 M€ pour 4 850 M€, dont 11 au deuxième trimestre
  • Carnet de commandes Défense de 41,1 milliards d'euros, soit environ 3,2 années de chiffre d'affaires
  • Très forte progression au Proche et Moyen-Orient (+202 % en organique en prises de commandes)
Outlook / guidance
  • Expected revenue: 23 600 millions d'euros
  • Management commentary: Organic sales growth expected between +6% and +7%, corresponding to sales of €23.3 to €23.6 billion; Adjusted EBIT margin expected between 12.6% and 12.8%

The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.

Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.

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