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Thales Shares Lagging in CAC 40 Amid Geopolitical Easing

In mid-morning trading, the defense electronics group is trailing at the bottom of the CAC 40, even as the Paris index moves into positive territory. The stock continues a downward trend that began in early June, dipping below a closely watched technical threshold. The geopolitical relaxation in the Middle East continues to erode the premium given to defense stocks.


Thales Shares Lagging in CAC 40 Amid Geopolitical Easing

The Stock Dips Below Its Support at €219.40 Before Rebounding

Thales shares are down 2.57% at €219.50 in mid-morning trading, ranking as the worst performer in the CAC 40 while the index itself is up 0.33%. The stock briefly dipped below its support level at €219.40, reaching a low of €218.50, before rebounding to the threshold. This movement extends the decline that has been ongoing for several sessions, already noted during the 2.5% drop the previous day. Over the week, the stock has lost nearly 5%, bringing its quarterly performance to -8.66%. The price is now below its three moving averages: the MM20 at €231.73 (a gap of -5.28%), the MM50 at €234.86, and the MM200 at €244.94, indicating a lag of more than 10% to catch up. The RSI at 43 remains neutral, which does not rule out a continued movement towards the €218 zone.

Easing on Brent and the Decline in Geopolitical Premiums Weigh on Defense

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The market context has turned unfavorable for the defense sector. Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have returned to their pre-conflict levels according to Washington, with Brent crude falling to around $72.5 per barrel, its lowest since the end of February. This geopolitical easing mechanically erodes the risk premium that had supported defense stocks in recent months. The movement comes as Thales had already absorbed its latest industrial announcements, including the French order of the multi-layer SAMP/T NG developed with MBDA in early June, and the presentation at Eurosatory of a military vehicle co-developed with Renault. The next technical threshold to watch remains the €218.50 zone, the session's low; in the event of a rebound, the MM20 at €231.73 acts as a nearby ceiling.



Sector Défense · Aéronautique / spatiale · Industrie · Technologie Défense


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Context

Period
  • Period: 2025
Key reported figures
  • Revenue: 22 136 millions d'euros
  • Revenue growth: 7,6 %
  • Net income: 2 005 millions d'euros (Résultat Net Ajusté, part du Groupe)
  • Free cash flow: 2 577 millions d'euros
  • -1 618 millions d'euros
  • Dividend per share: 3,90 €
  • Payout ratio: 40 %
Guidance from the release
  • 2025 a été une très bonne année avec des commandes records et une croissance du chiffre d’affaires, démontrant l’excellence opérationnelle du Groupe.
  • Communiqué indiquant des commandes records, un chiffre d’affaires en hausse et une rentabilité améliorée en 2025, avec des perspectives 2026 positives et un dividende soutenu.
Outlook / guidance
  • Expected revenue: Entre 23,3 et 23,6 milliards d'euros en 2026
  • Expected EBITDA: Non précisé publiquement
  • Expected net income: Non précisé publiquement
  • Management commentary: Pour 2026, Thales vise un book-to-bill supérieur à 1 et une croissance organique du chiffre d’affaires entre 6 % et 7 %, correspondant à un chiffre d’affaires entre 23,3 et 23,6 milliards d’euros, et une marge d’EBIT Ajusté entre 12,6 % et 12,8 %; le taux de conversion en cash devrait se situer entre 95 % et 100 %.

The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.

Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.

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