Thales Stock Soars Nearly 5% Midday Boosted by Bernstein Upgrade
Thales' share price has risen by 4.92% at midday this Tuesday, January 7, reaching 260.10 euros from 247.90 euros at the previous day's close. This sharp increase occurs amidst limited trading volumes representing 0.05% of the capital, indicating still moderate liquidity at the start of the year. The rebound is part of a remarkable weekly dynamic of 13.23% and brings the annual performance to 88.82%, confirming the group’s status as a favored defensive value in a tense geopolitical context.
Bernstein's Upgrade and Positive Outlook for Thales
On Monday, Bernstein upgraded its recommendation on Thales from market perform to outperform, while raising the price target from 259 to 275 euros. This upward revision reflects positive prospects for Thales' Defense and Aerospace divisions, which are expected to benefit from strong underlying trends through 2026 and beyond. The scalability of Thales' electronics operations and strong demand for key programs, including the Rafale, are cited as essential growth drivers, with the ramp-up of existing programs to higher production rates expected to support margin expansion through operational leverage. European defense stocks started 2026 up about 10% after increasing by approximately 75% on average in 2025. This upgrade comes in a context where Bernstein has conducted a sectoral arbitrage, simultaneously downgrading BAE Systems and Dassault Aviation. The new price target of 275 euros now offers a theoretical appreciation potential of 5.8% compared to the midday price.
Technical Indicators and Market Trends
Technically, the stock has now crossed its 50-day moving average set at 234.72 euros and also surpassed its 200-day moving average at 243.89 euros, a bullish signal after several weeks of consolidation. The RSI has reached 75, entering the overbought zone beyond 70, indicating strong buyer enthusiasm while suggesting a possible short-term breathing phase. The MACD indicator shows a particularly constructive configuration with a positive histogram at 2.23, significantly above the signal line at 0.13, confirming the reversal of the bearish momentum observed at the end of 2025. The price is now above the resistance threshold breached at 247.90 euros, paving the way for a continuation of the upward movement towards the 275 euros zone targeted by Bernstein. The one-month volatility is set at 6.81, a slightly high level that reflects recent fluctuations in the stock. Despite a decline of 0.84% over the last three months, linked to end-of-year geopolitical uncertainties, Thales maintains an upward trajectory with an exceptional annual performance of 88.82%.
Robust Business Dynamics and Strategic Developments
The group shows robust business dynamics with a turnover of 15.256 billion euros in the first nine months of 2025, organically growing by 8.4% compared to the previous year. The annual targets confirmed in October aim for organic growth between 6 and 7% and an adjusted EBIT margin between 12.2 and 12.4%. The order book remains particularly well-oriented, supported by several major recent contracts in defense and aerospace, sectors benefiting from the increase in European military budgets. Morgan Stanley maintains its recommendation at equal weight with a price target set at 260 euros since November 2025. Thales also announced on Tuesday that it had secured Samsung Electronics' new post-quantum security chip, which received the 'Best Cyber Innovation' award at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, incorporating Thales' secure operating system and quantum-resistant cryptography technologies. Progress towards a ceasefire in Ukraine remains a short-term factor for the sector, but Europe's rearmament needs remain unchanged.
