TotalEnergies Shares Decline Midday Despite Overheated RSI

Contradictory Technical Indicators

Technical indicators display conflicting signals for TotalEnergies. The RSI peaks at 83, a level significantly above the overbought threshold of 70, suggesting an overheating of the stock that could precede a consolidation phase. This tension is confirmed by the stochastic oscillator issuing a sell signal. Concurrently, the stock price moves above all its moving averages: €57.07 for the MM20, €56.44 for the MM50, and €53.70 for the MM200. This configuration illustrates the underlying bullish trend of the stock for several weeks. The MACD remains positive with a line at 1.24 against a signal at 0.75, confirming the upward momentum. The monthly volatility of 6.26% remains moderate for a major oil company, while the breach of the resistance at €61.15 last Friday theoretically paves the way for new highs.

Divergent Positions from Analysts

Analysis houses maintain divergent positions on the TotalEnergies file. Kepler Cheuvreux reiterated its sell recommendation at the end of January, lowering its price target from €52 to €51.50, indicating a potential downside of 14% from the current level. This caution contrasts with the appreciation from analysts of this European major. TD Cowen adopts a more measured stance with a neutral recommendation and a raised price target from €58 to €60 on January 22. This target, now close to the stock price, suggests limited short-term potential. These valuation discrepancies reflect the uncertainties weighing on the energy sector, between the volatility of crude oil prices and the energy transition. The next quarterly results, expected on February 11, should shed light on the group's trajectory coming out of the 2025 fiscal year.