TotalEnergies Shares Jump 3.7% After Reassuring Quarterly Indicators

Strong Quarterly Performance Drives Share Price Up

TotalEnergies' shares gained 3.7% on Wednesday, closing at 52.11 euros after ending the previous day at 50.25 euros. This increase, which was double that of the CAC 40's gain of 1.99%, occurred amidst moderate trading volumes representing 0.32% of the capital. The oil group released its main third-quarter 2025 indicators in the morning, reporting a hydrocarbon production of 2.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 4% year-over-year and surpassing its own forecasts. The European refining margin quadrupled year-over-year to reach 63 dollars per ton, compared to 15.4 dollars in the same period in 2024, supported by increased diesel demand and reduced supply due to sanctions on Russian fuels. Despite a 10-dollar decrease in Brent crude prices per barrel year-over-year, TotalEnergies expects an increase in its results and cash flow of between 0 and 5% for the third quarter. This recovery comes after several challenging sessions. Over seven days, the stock has gained 2.44%, but it is down 2.31% over three months and has fallen 16.61% over the year, while the CAC 40 has risen by 6.25% over the same period. The stock is now slightly above its 50-day moving average of 52.46 euros, indicating a short-term stabilization attempt. However, it remains below its 200-day moving average of 53.97 euros, suggesting that the underlying trend is still fragile. The stock is positioned in the middle of its Bollinger Bands, ranging from 49.40 euros to 53.95 euros, reflecting a monthly volatility contained at 5.68%, relatively low for a major oil company.

Technical Indicators Suggest Potential Short-Term Buying Interest

Technically, the RSI is at 27, a very low level indicating a pronounced oversold condition that could attract buyers in the short term. This indicator, which measures the relative strength of price movements, generally signals a potential reversal when it falls below 30. Meanwhile, the MACD remains negative with a line at -0.65 and a signal at -0.46, confirming a bearish momentum that persists despite the day's rebound. The MACD histogram, at -0.19, shows a slight tremor but does not yet indicate a clear reversal of the trend. Money flows remain unfavorable, as evidenced by the Chaikin Money Flow at -0.13 and the On Balance Volume significantly negative at -8.45 million units. These two indicators, which measure buying or selling pressure and the accumulation or distribution of the stock, point to a dominant selling trend over recent weeks. The stock fluctuates between a technical support at 49.85 euros, tested several times in recent days, and a resistance at 54.25 euros, which represents the first hurdle if the rebound continues. With a beta of -0.06, TotalEnergies shows almost independence from the movements of the CAC 40, making it a stock with its own dynamics, often sought after in periods of stock market uncertainty.

Moderate Daily Volatility as Market Regains Interest in Oil Stocks

The average daily volatility, measured by the ATR at 0.50 euro, remains moderate and suggests limited movement amplitude in a market that regained some appetite for oil stocks on Wednesday. The 3.7% rebound comes after the stock lost nearly a fifth of its value over twelve months, significantly underperforming the Parisian index. This divergence is partly explained by an unfavorable oil price environment, with Brent crude falling 14% in the third quarter compared to the previous year, averaging 69.1 dollars per barrel. Investors seem to have welcomed the group's ability to offset the decline in oil prices with a notable improvement in its refining margins and a production growth exceeding expectations. The debt ratio is expected to improve by 0.5 to 1 percentage point compared to the end of June 2025, thanks to a positive working capital estimated between 1 and 2 billion dollars. Net investments for the third quarter are expected to be around 3 billion dollars, including 500 million in net divestments. This release comes in a context where the CAC 40 has seen a significant resurgence of interest, particularly driven by luxury stocks, with LVMH up 13% on the same day after reporting solid quarterly results.